North Korea missile launch expected in 24 to 48 hrs - Launch Failed

[Knut]

http://abcnews.go.com/news/t/blogEntry?id=16119982

Not sure on the accuracy, but the thought is that it is a long range missile and it will head over the Phillipines and land in waters near Australia.

Sabre rattling most likely, but an interesting move in their part

[CaptainCrunch]

looks like juniors junior is still firmly in the Militaries camp.

[RedMileDJ]

North Korea scares the heck out of me.

[Yasa]

Oh this again?

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Red-Mile-DJ

North Korea scares the heck out of me.

It will probably explode on the launching pad.

[pylon]

Originally Posted by Red-Mile-DJ

North Korea scares the heck out of me.

The US could send one Aircraft Carrier over there, and pretty much demolish their entire military if they ever decided to be stupid enough to attack any other country.

They are really not a threat to anyone besides South Korea, and even if they were stupid enough to shell South Korea, they would essentially be signing their own death sentences.

[driveway]

The problem is the decision would be made by a very small elite who would doubtless be aware of the end result of their actions, but may not care, or may consider some kind of archaic "warrior's death" to be preferable to being ousted from power or slowly losing control of the country.

I do not believe this is a likely outcome of the North Korean situation, but it cannot be discounted as a possibility.

Also, living well within range of hostile nuclear weapons (both Chinese and North Korean) is lame.

[TheCommodoreAfro]

Lots of fighter jets being scrambled in around the Atsugi/Zama bases in the west Tokyo/west of Yokohama areas. Without fail those DPRK buggers are making it impossible for me to sleep in past 6:30am....

[T@T]

Originally Posted by pylon

The US could send one Aircraft Carrier over there, and pretty much demolish their entire military if they ever decided to be stupid enough to attack any other country.

They are really not a threat to anyone besides South Korea, and even if they were stupid enough to shell South Korea, they would essentially be signing their own death sentences.

And what happens after the Chinese sinks the Carrier?

Timeline:
NK bombs SK
USA attacks NK
China attacks US in the region sinking their warships
USA sends stealth bombers to China in retaliation
Russia enters conflict to back China
WWIII begins.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by T@T

And what happens after the Chinese sinks the Carrier?

Timeline:
NK bombs SK
USA attacks NK
China attacks US in the region sinking their warships
USA sends stealth bombers to China in retaliation
Russia enters conflict to back China
WWIII begins.

Don't forget that Iran and Pakistan are both supported by China. It wouldn't take long for Israel and possibly India to get dragged in.

Normally, I would think that the world has learned a lot since WW1 and WW2, but the world is due for a giant shift in power and China has been knocking on that door for a while. A Korean conflict would serve as a convenient pretext to assert themselves as the global superpower.

In the end though, I think China would just end up assuming control of all of Korea.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by T@T

And what happens after the Chinese sinks the Carrier?

Timeline:
NK bombs SK
USA attacks NK
China attacks US in the region sinking their warships
USA sends stealth bombers to China in retaliation
Russia enters conflict to back China
WWIII begins.

These 2 things would not happen because neither of those regimes is "crazy", so rest easy.

[GirlySports]

China tolerates NK but aren't really their friends. Not friends enough to defend them in a war.

Junior's on his own.

[Cheese]

^^^this coming from the "crazy" Russian poster at CP, 2 posts up!

[kirant]

Originally Posted by T@T

And what happens after the Chinese sinks the Carrier?

Why would China sink a carrier attacking NK? China's just barely on a scale of tolerance with North Korea, whereas the rest of the world just ignores the nation.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

China tolerates NK but aren't really their friends. Not friends enough to defend them in a war.

Junior's on his own.

I don't think they would do anything to defend North Korea, but they would likely want to defend their own interests within their sphere of influence.

I'm sure if it came down to an all out war and regime change in North Korea (which would also likely mean Western/American occupation), China would much rather be the ones taking over that task. I don't see an all out war of China against the U.S., but rather a proxy war between the two (again).

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by T@T

And what happens after the Chinese sinks the Carrier?

Timeline:
NK bombs SK
USA attacks NK
China attacks US in the region sinking their warships
USA sends stealth bombers to China in retaliation
Russia enters conflict to back China
WWIII begins.

I very much doubt that step 4 and 6 would happen, and probably not 7 either.

If NK bombs SK conventionally
SK invades NK
NK gets super punched, NK leadership flees to China.
SK gets warned by the Chinese to stop their advance
SK says stuff it
China invades NK and pushes the SK back across the DMZ
New puppet regime installed in NK by Chinese

The Chinese would probably not attack the United States Navy let alone an aircraft carrier, it would be suicide for the Chinese on multiple levels.

1) The American's are a key market for the Chinese, American's love their cheap but crappy lead painted products. That loss of flow of real currency to China would be devestating.
2) As big as the Chinese Military is, thier navy is pretty pathetic and their submarine forces are 10 to 15 years behind the American's. China's navy would cease to exist
3) If the chinese sank an aircraft carrier, the American's would view it as an attack on a national strategic asset, plus the Chinese would be killing up to 5000 American's for no reason. The American's still have a massive technological edge in strategic bombing and fighter assets. This isn't the 50's where you could bomb the crap out of China and China wouldn't care. You can hurt China badly by going after their infrastructure. America would create a object lesson by destroying bridges, power centers and governmental facilities.
4) Russia is not China's ally at the heart of any matter, they might do business with China and agree with China in areas of common interest, but the Russian's still hate the Chinese and mistrust them. The Russians to curry favor with the American's would probably let the American's use their air strips in the East for bombing runs into China.

[Lt.Spears]

Ah, KOREAR!

Lets hope this ultimately leads to nothing except the DPRK stroking their own ego's

[CaptainCrunch]

This is all about Kim Jung-Un establishing and securing his leadership. He was probably the one that authorized the Military strike on the SK Destroyer and the shelling of the SK village just before he took power.

Like I said, this pretty much establishes him as in the camp of the Military as oppossed to the Intelligence Services. The Military has always been conceived by the leadership in NK as strongly pro NK while the Intelligence apparatus is seen as infilitrated by the Chinese.

[QuadCityImages]

Lets hope it blows up on the pad, or better yet, veers over into some bunker where their few scientists are watching from.

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

This is all about Kim Jung-Un establishing and securing his leadership. He was probably the one that authorized the Military strike on the SK Destroyer and the shelling of the SK village just before he took power.

Like I said, this pretty much establishes him as in the camp of the Military as oppossed to the Intelligence Services. The Military has always been conceived by the leadership in NK as strongly pro NK while the Intelligence apparatus is seen as infilitrated by the Chinese.

Or it means that he never established himself and the military is really in control. Kim Jong-il was much more established in the North Korean hierarchy when his father died than Kim Jong-un was when Kim Jong-il died.