Heat Update: October on the Farm

[thymebalm]

One month of AHL hockey has gone by, and the Abbotsford Heat are proudly sporting a 6-3-0-0 record, good for 4th in the west. It was a team effort that built Octobers winning record, by limiting shots on goal, and having excellent special teams. The goals didn't come early for the Heat, but since the addition of Krys Kolanos to the lineup two games ago, the Heat have outscored their opponents 11-3. Below is a look at team and individual stats through October.

Team Stats

GP - 9 (tied for 10th)
Wins - 6 (tied for 2nd)
GF - 23 (tied for 22nd)
GA - 19 (3rd)
PP% - 25% (6th)
PK% - 92.9% (1st)

Leaders After October

Goals - Krys Kolanos (4)
Assists - Ben Walter (6)
Points - Ben Walter (9)
+/- - TJ Brodie (+3)
Shots - Dustin Sylvester (24)
PIMs - Paul Byron (26)

Leland Irving leads all goaltending categories

GP: 9 (1st in AHL)
Wins: 6 (1st in AHL)
SO: 1 (tied for 1st in AHL)
SV% .912% (21st in AHL, *tied with Joni Ortio)
GAA: 2.05 (8th in AHL)

Noteworthy:

Leland Irving picks up where he left off as the most winning goaltender in the AHL. So far, his decision to stay in North America is panning out. He really could be the future starter between Calgary's pipes. Perhaps the most noteworthy thing to happen to Irving this month was the first fight of his professional career! As a "third man in fight" he was ejected from the game and Ortio was allowed to mop up for him.

Krys Kolanos comes out of nowhere and puts up 7 points in 2 games as the Heat's newest roster player. There is no questioning this players slick hands. A one time 30 goal scorer for the Quad City Flames in 08', fans should be happy to have this guy back in the fold.

Ben Walter may well prove to be the cornerstone the Heat were looking for to build a competitive club, and that's not just because he brought his father Ryan Walter with him to the Heat organization. Ben is producing at a point a game clip and shows all the signs of a veteran pro. He would be my go to guy for a call up at this point.

TJ Brodie could be criticized for his slow start to the season, but the defender swore to improve his game on his own side of center-ice so he could get stick in the NHL. As of right now, he leads the team in +/-, so it appears he's being true to his word.

Lance Bouma and Jordan Henry find their way into the slow starts category, despite both being highly touted prospects of the Flames camp this year. Neither has registered a point and both are -2 this month.

Greg Nemisz is also doing quite well in his sophmore pro season, but will likely be overshadowed by some of the veterans added to the club this off season. He has 6 points in 9 games and has progressed nicely in the power forward mold.

Raitis Ivanans has dressed in two matchups since being sent down, collecting 0 PIMs and 2 shots on net. Recovering from injuries marginalizes many players, and one must wonder how Raitis will get himself back into a regular pro hockey lineup.

Paul Byron ends the October update with a bit of controversy. Byron was ejected from a game earlier this month after boarding an opposition player whilst they celebrated a goal. He was suspended for 3 games, finishing off his suspension this afternoon. It's hard to believe Byron is only 5'7" and 154lbs when you see the tenacity he plays with. Makes one yearn for a second coming of a Theo Fleury type to the franchise, though Byron clearly still has lots to learn.

--

After one month of hockey, it fair to say the Abbotsford Heat have built on the strong defensive foundation they established last season, and look to be a legitimate contender for the Calder Cup playoffs.

[Francis's Hairpiece]

Great writeup. Love the way this team is going. Thanks for your time and effort!

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

I absolutely love the way this team is playing right now. They had a few crappy games, but seem to have snapped out of it these last couple of games.

My one concern is this:

Will these veteran players like Walter, Kolanos, Laing, Rheault, Wilson, Piskula, Henry, etc. take ice time away from our real prospects like Byron, Nemisz, Bouma, Brodie, Breen, Sylvester, Howse, Wahl, Bancks, etc.?

I really hope this isn't the case, there's a very fine line between the AHL being completely for development purposes and creating a winning AHL club. I just hope Feaster, Ward, and the rest of the people in the organization don't start leaning too far towards the "winning" side. That may sound weird, and don't get me wrong I love watching them win, but not at the sacrifice of the development of our prospects via lack of ice time.

[thymebalm]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

I absolutely love the way this team is playing right now. They had a few crappy games, but seem to have snapped out of it these last couple of games.

My one concern is this:

Will these veteran players like Walter, Kolanos, Laing, Rheault, Wilson, Piskula, Henry, etc. take ice time away from our real prospects like Byron, Nemisz, Bouma, Brodie, Breen, Sylvester, Howse, Wahl, Bancks, etc.?

I really hope this isn't the case, there's a very fine line between the AHL being completely for development purposes and creating a winning AHL club. I just hope Feaster, Ward, and the rest of the people in the organization don't start leaning too far towards the "winning" side. That may sound weird, and don't get me wrong I love watching them win, but not at the sacrifice of the development of our prospects via lack of ice time.

I think we are seeing the results of a meritocracy. Players are earning their ice time on a nightly basis. Troy Ward and Jay Feaster have effectively used the ECHL to condition players not performing to par, and the same goes for AHL ice time.

Bouma and Breen have seen plenty of time and haven't been able to use it effectively. Byron sees quite a bit of ice as well. I often question Brent Sutter's allocation of minutes on the main roster, but Troy Ward really seems on point with giving the right guys the right minutes. Right now, providing a little shelter for the likes of Nemisz, Sylvester, Howse, Wahl and Bancks probably helps their development, not hinders it. The pressure for ice time might be a big part of what makes Abbotsford such a strong defensive club.

I haven't seen enough to worry about prospects being buried, though I wonder what Wahl's road to recovery will look like. With 5 goals and 7 points in 5 games in the ECHL, it seems like he is about ready to return to the AHL. Bouma might swap places with him, which probably wouldn't hurt either player at this point.

[Freeway]

I'll be speaking with Troy sometime in the next week, so I'll probably ask him about it again, but when we spoke during training camp he mentioned the organization-wide meritocracy being the main determinant of ice time, and that the Flames see the best way to develop players would be teaching them how to win. In their view, a strong farm club will benefit all of the players that are part of it.

[flamesaresmokin]

Disappointing to see Howse not playing well. I wasn't expecting him to light the world on fire but 0 points and only 5 games played isn't a good sign.

Hopefully byron can come back and make some noise. He would be a nice mid season call up for the flames if things go well.

[kirant]

What do you think is the upside on Irving? I've always compared him to a Jonas Hiller in play style (heavily invested in his positioning and will be one of the premier 1st stop goalies in the league), but is that also an accurate representation of how far he can get in the league? Or is that over/under?

[Pierre "Monster" McGuire]

Originally Posted by kirant

What do you think is the upside on Irving? I've always compared him to a Jonas Hiller in play style (heavily invested in his positioning and will be one of the premier 1st stop goalies in the league), but is that also an accurate representation of how far he can get in the league? Or is that over/under?

Your absolutely right regarding his positioning and being a first stop goalie, but that's not to say he gives up for 2nd and 3rd saves as well. I don't know how Jonas Hiller plays so I can't compare Irving to him, but he is one of the best goalies I've seen positionally. He has great puck handling skills as well. I've rarely seen him get in the way of a defenseman chasing the same puck.

As for his upside: I see him as being a lot like James Reimer. Exactly the same age, a little lighter and shorter. The kicker is, Irving has had numbers in the AHL than Reimer. Whether that translates as well to the NHL, I don't know. It's just really too bad they signed Karlsson for two years because I have a feeling we're going to lose Irving.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

Your absolutely right regarding his positioning and being a first stop goalie, but that's not to say he gives up for 2nd and 3rd saves as well. I don't know how Jonas Hiller plays so I can't compare Irving to him, but he is one of the best goalies I've seen positionally. He has great puck handling skills as well. I've rarely seen him get in the way of a defenseman chasing the same puck.

As for his upside: I see him as being a lot like James Reimer. Exactly the same age, a little lighter and shorter. The kicker is, Irving has had numbers in the AHL than Reimer. Whether that translates as well to the NHL, I don't know. It's just really too bad they signed Karlsson for two years because I have a feeling we're going to lose Irving.

Depending on how well Karlsson does this year I do think Feaster will look at usinga goalie as a trade chip.

If he feels that Karlsson and Irving can carry the load next year he might be smart to shop Kipper regarldess of how good he plays. Kipper's NMC expires next year and his salary is low in the last 2 years of his deal.

If Irving looks like the real deal I don't see the Flames letting him go. At least not under this regime that appears to e more focused on the future.

[Cheese]

abbotsfordheat Abbotsford Heat by TheFirstCheese

#AHLHeat Krys Kolanos is named #AHL Player of the Week after recording 7 pts in 2 games. bit.ly/sayvGy @NHLFlames

[kirant]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

Your absolutely right regarding his positioning and being a first stop goalie, but that's not to say he gives up for 2nd and 3rd saves as well. I don't know how Jonas Hiller plays so I can't compare Irving to him, but he is one of the best goalies I've seen positionally. He has great puck handling skills as well. I've rarely seen him get in the way of a defenseman chasing the same puck.

As for his upside: I see him as being a lot like James Reimer. Exactly the same age, a little lighter and shorter. The kicker is, Irving has had numbers in the AHL than Reimer. Whether that translates as well to the NHL, I don't know. It's just really too bad they signed Karlsson for two years because I have a feeling we're going to lose Irving.

Yeah. Much of what you say seems to give me visions of Hiller...I think if we do manage to keep Irving, it'll come down to a contrast of natures again between the D Feaster likes (fast, two-way, not required to be physical) compared to the style Irving has, where some of the biggest threats are going to be within the last 10 feet from the net. Speedy defensemen will be able to prevent the long bomb shots and force teams to constantly cycle the puck, but won't be able to clear the front of the net if rebounds occur...much like our situation with an aging Kiprusoff, jamming away will score quick and often.

It seems to be less of an issue with Karlsson by nature of the way he rebounds the puck (they bounce out far and often to the opposite side) and is less of an issue as Karlsson can fall back on being big to stop lots of in tight shots...Irving, not so much. Irving does have the ability to be a much more positionally sound goalie though and, if he can build up lateral movement, I think will be a much better goalie.

Using Reimer as a comparison might not give a good indication. Reimer caught fire last year at the end of the season...we're not sure yet if those are his actual quality numbers ala Ward or if he pulled the same stunt as Halak (who's certainly not an elite goaltender).

I'm also not convinced Karlsson for two years will be a major issue. I think Feaster is preparing to move Kiprusoff soon, using his low actual salary as bait for a team with lots of cap space. A combination of Irving/Karlsson (1A/1B...whichever plays which) for a few years wil be shaky at times, but gives me some pretty good feelings that the Flames won't be desperately looking for reinforcements in net for at least 5 years (At worse, we'll have a 1B/Backup situation...which, while not ideal, should get by at some degree).

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Pierre "Monster" McGuire

Your absolutely right regarding his positioning and being a first stop goalie, but that's not to say he gives up for 2nd and 3rd saves as well. I don't know how Jonas Hiller plays so I can't compare Irving to him, but he is one of the best goalies I've seen positionally. He has great puck handling skills as well. I've rarely seen him get in the way of a defenseman chasing the same puck.

As for his upside: I see him as being a lot like James Reimer. Exactly the same age, a little lighter and shorter. The kicker is, Irving has had numbers in the AHL than Reimer. Whether that translates as well to the NHL, I don't know. It's just really too bad they signed Karlsson for two years because I have a feeling we're going to lose Irving.

Kipper's NMC expires this season and he could be moved. I also don't think they will hesitate in putting Karlson in the AHL if they feel Irving is the better goalie.

Irving could go play in Europe, but I think he would rather remain in the NHL and the Flames still have his rights.

If Irving continues to play well I would be surprised not to see him in a Flames jersey next season. If Karlson continues to play poorly it could be as early as this season.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by kirant

A combination of Irving/Karlsson (1A/1B...whichever plays which) for a few years wil be shaky at times, but gives me some pretty good feelings that the Flames won't be desperately looking for reinforcements in net for at least 5 years (At worse, we'll have a 1B/Backup situation...which, while not ideal, should get by at some degree).

I doubt Feaster goes that route unless Karlson shows he can be a starter this season. His inability to find a goalie in Tampa following Khabibulin leaving was a big problem and Feaster seems to be a fan of building from the net out.

If we blow up the team perhaps. But I think Feaster expects to make the playoffs every year even as he rebuilds and I don't think a playoff team has a tandem of Irving/Karlson. Especially as early as next season. Not unless both take big steps.

My guess is Karlson either shows he is a potential starter or he ends up fighting Irving for the back-up role.

[kirant]

Originally Posted by kehatch

I doubt Feaster goes that route unless Karlson shows he can be a starter this season. His inability to find a goalie in Tampa following Khabibulin leaving was a big problem and Feaster seems to be a fan of building from the net out.

I think we may be reading two different results from the same information (a limited sample size, so it's very much interpretive at this point). I think he likes fast D and skilled offence with a transition game of high pace shifting gears of defending of scoring being the key, with a goaltending requirement of "passable" being all that's needed.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by kirant

I think we may be reading two different results from the same information (a limited sample size, so it's very much interpretive at this point). I think he likes fast D and skilled offence with a transition game of high pace shifting gears of defending of scoring being the key, with a goaltending requirement of "passable" being all that's needed.

I am just going off of what Feaster said when he came to Calgary. His biggest issue in Tampa was finding a goalie and he liked that Calgary already had that. He also said he strongly agrees that you build from the net out.

Whether he was blowing smoke or being truthful is up for debate. But the fact that his inability to find a good starting goalie despite a number of tries isn't.

Where are you getting your information that Feaster would be comfortable with a passable goaltender? I haven't heard that anywhere.

[Huntingwhale]

Thanks for the writeup. How is the coaching staff doing with the team? I like seeing how the team is 3 in GAA, but noticed it was in the bottom 3rd of the league in GF. Obiously the team focus is on defense, but do you think that we will see any legitimate scorers come out of the system? Or are we forever destined for more '2-way' players?

[thymebalm]

I would say Greg Nemisz is the only guy who legitimately looks on the trajectory for a scoring threat in the NHL. Paul Byron is the next closest, for now.

We might see growth out of Rheault, Armstrong, Wahl, Howse, Bancks and Bouma in the future, but right now they are just treading water in the pro hockey world. We'll have a better idea next year if this group has further potential.