I think it is a bit of a stretch actually.
Right now Tesla controls 80% of the EV market, no? If they keep doing well, they should sell 500,000 cars in 2020.
Total cars sold in 2019 were 77 million. Sales seem to be falling 2-3% per year, so lets take 75 million vehicles sold worldwide. EVs seem to be around the 2 million mark.
2 million / 75 million = 2%.
Right now Tesla, who seems to be the most successful at building EVs and getting them to market, is investing around $12 billion over the next 2 years on capital expenditures.
They haven't proven they can hit 500k cars per year yet, but lofty expectations put them at 750k cars in 2021/2022. So, if they want to go from 500k cars in 2020, to 750k cars in 2022, they need to spend $12 billion dollars.
Or $48k per car.
Economies of scale and all that, because it is hard to measure, lets round that number down to $30k per car.
In order to get to 25% of market share, or roughly 20 million cars per year, companies would need to spend almost $600 billion dollars in 10 years.
Hybrid technology is probably a bit more developed, so I guess there is a chance there.
But still, I just don't see that kind of investment leading to that kind of market share.
Could be wrong though. Just seems exponentially hard to go climb even 2% higher in production.
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