Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
I'm going to start by saying I still don't like this deal. The trade itself gave the Oilers the ability to buy out Neal after next season - and that in itself provides then with a lot of value just because that wasn't an option for them with Lucic.
However after doing some digging it turns out that the advanced stats and counting stats aren't actually that far apart for these two over the last two seasons.
The last two seasons would include both of Lucic's "bad" seasons in Edmonton, and Neals okay VGK season and "bad" season in Calgary. So you'd think this comparison should favour Neal...but it doesn't.
If you look at the last two seasons at 5v5:
Counting Stats:
Neal:
GP: 134
G: 22
A: 20
P: 42
Shots: 264
Shooting Percentage: 8.33%
Hits: 88
Lucic:
GP: 161
G: 11
A: 28
P: 39
Shots: 185
Shooting Percentage: 5.95%
Hits: 492
That's actually way closer than I thought it would be. Neal the better goal scorer but not as good of a distributor, and doesn't play physical Anymore. Lucic's shot seems to have dissapeared but he can still hit.
Advanced Stats:
Neal:
CF%: 50.5%
CF% Rel: -1.76%
HDCF%: 47.4%
GF%: 46.4%
xGF%: 48.1%
xGF% Rel: -4.69%
PDO: .992
Offensive Zone Start: 59.5%
Lucic
CF%: 50.9%
CF% Rel:2.09%
HDCF%: 50.8%
GF%: 47.1%
xGF%: 51.2%
XGF% Rel: 2.3%
PDO: .992
Offensive Zone Start: 49.8%
From an advanced stat perspective Lucic has actually been much better than Neal over the last two seasons.
He's been better from a raw number perspective, better from a relative to teammates perspective, and did it with tougher zone starts.
Overall I still think Treliving is crazy to do this since it helps the Oilers out too much - but from an on ice perspective this actually doesn't make the Flames much worse next season, and helps fill a hole from a physicality perspective. And probably helps the locker room since Lucic is more suited to a bottom 6 role, where it appears that Neal may not have been happy in that same role.
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I wrote
this post about a month ago and it's a bit more simplistic than yours, but illustrates that there isn't much difference between Neal and Lucic offensively, and you can infer that if Lucic wasn't playing in Edmonton he'd likely be better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Flash Walken
Eriksson - .36 ppg
Neal - .30 ppg
Lucic - .25 ppg
Of course, Neal averaged more icetime per game and a minute more powerplay time than either guy.
Total Icetime
Eriksson: 1139 / 29 = 1 point every 39 mins
Neal: 942 / 19 = 1 point every 50 mins
Lucic: 1045 / 20 points = 1 point every 52 mins
Even Strength
Eriksson: 939 / 26 = 1 point every 36 mins
Neal: 802 / 13 = 1 point every 62 mins
Lucic: 939 / 16 = 1 point every 59 mins
PowerPlay
Eriksson: 102 / 3 = 1 point ever 34 mins
Neal: 139 / 6 = 1 point ever 23 mins
Lucic: 106 / 4 = 1 point every 27 mins
It's pretty freakin' close with Eriksson being the best of the 3.
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Basically if you gave Neal's minutes with Calgary to Lucic last year he's probably a significantly better offensive player but also brings another dimension that Neal simply doesn't have.