Yes, Musk has a long history of stating overly ambitious future plans and how things will shake out, and then being off by weeks, months or even years.
Is he manipulating Tesla stock, taking money (preorders) etc? Sure.
But getting hung up on dates and timelines when there is clear progress is strange position to take.
I guess every new development that humans have ever built will have its share of naysayers who all disappear once the end goal is accomplished.
I'll share some doozies with you.
“The automobile is a fad, a novelty. Horses are here to stay.” The President of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford’s lawyer, Horace Rackham, not to invest in the Ford Motor Company; 1903.
“Before man reaches the moon, your mail will be delivered in hours from New York to Australia by guided missiles. We stand right at the brink of an era of rocket-powered mail.” Arthur Summerfield, U.S. Postmaster General; 1959.
“Remote shopping, while entirely feasible, will certainly flop. It has no chance of success.” Time Magazine, 1966.
“Mobile phones will absolutely never replace the wired telephone”. Marty Cooper, inventor of the mobile phone, 1981.
“There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be attainable. It would mean the atom would have to be shattered at will”. Albert Einstein, 1932.
“Television will never hold onto an audience. People will very quickly get bored of staring at a plywood box every night”. Darryl Zanuck, 20th Century Fox, 1946.
“Fooling around with alternating current (AC) is just a waste of time. Nobody will ever use it.” Thomas Edison, famous inventor and holder of more than 1,000 patents. 1889.
“There is practically no chance satellites will ever improve telephone, television or radio reception within the United States.” T. Craven, FCC Commissioner, 1961.
“No-one will ever need more than 637KB of memory in a computer. 640KB ought to be enough for anybody.” Bill Gates, CEO of Microsoft, 1981.
“This ‘telephone’ has far too many shortcomings to be taken seriously as a means of communication. It has objectively no value.” William Orton, President of Western Union, 1876.
“Why would we make this? The global potential market for copying machines is 5,000 at absolute most”. IBM, to the guys who would eventually found Xerox, 1959.
“There is no reason an individual would ever want a computer in their home”. Ken Olsen, founder of Digital Equipment Corp, 1977.
“The idea of a personal communicator in every pocket is nothing more than a pipe-dream fuelled by greed.” Andy Grove, CEO of Intel, 1992.
“I predict that the internet will go spectacularly supernova, and in 1996 it will catastrophically implode”. Robert Metcalf, inventor of Ethernet, 1995.
“There is no chance of the iPhone ever gaining significant market share”. Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft, 2007.
“The internet will fade away because most people have nothing to say to each other. By 2005 it will be clear that the internet’s impact on the global economy has been no greater than the fax machine.” Paul Krugman, renowned Economist, 1998.
“Subscription models for music are bankrupt. I think you could make the Second Coming of Jesus himself available on subscription and it wouldn’t be successful.” Steve Jobs, CEO of Apple, 2003.
If you go look at the timelines on some of those projects, almost every single one of them suffered setbacks despite the ambitious plans by the people leading development.
So to get hung up on what Musk says about his timeline or the future is just a strange line to draw in the sand.
I could also provide you with some great quotes about people saying SpaceX will never be able to land a rocket back on earth after launching, and laughing at Musk when he said it was not only possible, but vital for future space flight.
The point being that sure he has an ambitious view on most things, but I find it strange that people get hung up over it.
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