Quote:
Originally Posted by bluejays
At this point anything North Korea does isn't newsworthy. They're the boy who cried wolf semi-annually. Nothing to see here - just the semi-annual company fire drill.
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This is the playbook that his father and his grandfather laid out. It looks crazy and irrational, but its the diplomacy playbook of a leader that looks to have ultimate power but doesn't.
Kim the youngest is caught between the North Korean Intellgence Service and the Military. He has to keep both off balance and fighting each other. Because of this he has to appear to be strong to both sides.
The strategy of testing long range missiles, and short range missiles while continuing forward with their nuclear program and targeting Seoul is about the only card they've got. Usually it works to get food and other essentials from the West to calm things down. That card is wearing down.
The Truth is that North Korea has very little to trade. They have a lot of common minerals that can be bought anywhere else. They have some strategic minerals that can be bought elsewhere. They have some manufacturing plants, but again, they are goods that can be bought elsewhere including China and other Asian states.
Right now the biggest cash export from North Korea is pretty much Fentanyl.
Their former biggest trade partners aren't as interested in bailing out North Korea. Russia isn't arming them like they used to. China treats them as an annoying neighbor. China doesn't even export the cheap labor anymore.
Can I see a coupe happening? Its doubtful. The balancing act between the Army and the Intelligence Service is effective. The Army may have the guns, but the Intelligence Service can accuse and condemn senior officers and threats on a whim, and Kim is possibly less cagey and more capricious then his Father and Grandfather.
Its also interesting to note the Kim's sister Kim Yo-Jong is following the typical succession route in North Korea and has become the defacto spokes person for the country.