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Originally Posted by Slava
Yeah and I read his stuff all the time as well. To be clear, I just like discussing these things and I'm not attacking you or anyone else on these things (in case it comes across that way).
But let's pretend that Barlow is right in that article (which I remember reading back in the fall sometime?). I'm not sure what you do with that information? Like if we have a recession and let's pretend its September 2019...what does that mean for today? I think that selling everything today and sitting on the sidelines would be questionable for a few reasons. What if you're wrong? What if all we had here is a routine, healthy pullback and the fed stepped in and made sure that everything was decent and we saw a recovery and "business as usual"? And if you're right, you've foregone basically 3 quarters worth of dividends and whatever gains you would have had for the next 9 months. But just as importantly, what if you're right that the recession is coming and that winds up being a 20% decline from the peak...which still leaves you significantly above where you bought in to begin with? I'm just not sure that selling and trying to time a reentry is the right course of action for a long term investor.
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Oh, um, nothing at all, really. There really is no timing the market.