Quote:
Originally Posted by PepsiFree
Yeah, 9ish gets you Stone or Duchene in UFA. Very cool. “Neat” even. 27 and 28 years old, respectively, and guys who are likely as good now as they will ever be.
Nobody that I know of has attached the 9.5 number to less than 8 years for Tkachuk. If they have, they’re out to lunch, fair enough. But we’re talking max here, and 9ish sounds very reasonable to take a player the caliber of Tkachuk (already at 21) right through his prime to 29 years old.
In 8 years, Stone (who has had a whopping 1 season over a point per game) will be 35. How good are players between 30 and 35 compared to players between 24 and 29? Who do you think is going to be better over the course of the next 8 years?
And Duchene, just like Tkachuk, a whopping ZERO seasons where he’s managed to hit a point per game, after how many years in the league? And he’s some high water mark? He’s 28, on his 3rd and possibly 4th team coming up here. What?
I get it. If you think Tkachuk is as good as he’ll ever be, 9.5 over 8 is a lot of money. Though, Stone and Duchene who statistically aren’t much better and certainly aren’t poised to get a whole lot better before they start getting a whole lot, are definitely “worth” 9.5.
9.5 over 8 is not about today, it’s about 3 years from now and beyond. How well did a bridge deal work out for Montreal with Subban? Seems like it blew up in their face. You sign Tkachuk for 9.5 over 8 now not because he’s worth 9.5 today, but because when the cap goes up and Tkachuk is better in 3 years, you’re paying a hell of a lot more for all of the years after that.
Matthews got 11.6 and not 9.5 because of the stats you mentioned. That’s why we’re not talking about Tkachuk at 11.6. Matthews also got 11.6 and not 13.6 because he signed for 5 years, not max term. I fully believe Tkachuk comes in between 7 and 8 on a 5 year deal. And I don’t think that’s necessarily bad.
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There's a lot to respond to here.
1. Stone and Duchene were/are pending UFAs. They get the most money in a bidding war. Tkachuk is an RFA. There isn't a single RFA winger to come out of his ELC in the last five years and get $8M+. It doesn't matter if Stone/Duchene haven't hit PPG, they're UFA. And in Duchene's case, he's a 1st line centre. Veteran 1st line centres are veritable unicorns on the open market.
2. It's not about how good I think Tkachuk can be. That's not what RFA negotiations are about. And furthermore, it can't be had both ways - either you pay based on what you've accomplished, or you pay based on futures. A team might give a player a little more than he might be worth today in the hopes that the contract provides surplus value on the back half. See our actual 1st line LW. You don't pay a 21 year old left winger like a free agent #1C. That's bad GMing.
3. Auston Matthews got the contract he got because he's a 21 year old 6 ft 4 220lb centre with 114 goals through his first three years. That's why.
Tkachuk has done more than enough to get paid. He hasn't done anything to justify resetting the RFA market.
William Nylander, who is the most comparable recent RFA based on production alone, got just under $7M/per after a two month holdout. Nylander is also listed as a centre, even if he doesn't play it regularly - Toronto has the ability to kick him in the middle if they want. Can the Flames move Matthew Tkachuk to centre? No.
This player is worth between $6.5-7.5M. If he wants to miss games over 500k a year, that's his call. I know Keith held out - I would argue it's a little different when you're negotiating with the early 90s Jets or mid 90s Coyotes - teams that don't have money, in vastly different economic realities. There's nothing wrong with a five or six year deal. At least we know Tkachuk will be the player we paid for for the duration of the contract.