So what are people's estimates for what housing prices do in Calgary for 2020?
On one hand you have CMHC's report speculating that prices could be down 25% in Alberta. I'd say that 25% is valid for Calgary with it's head office concentration.
Then you have CREB issuing a revised for report Calgary May 1. They report a decline of 2-4% depending on housing type, but don't make a call on where it goes. Lots of stats if you are inclined to drill into these results further (
link)
Apologies for the bearish outlook - but my crystal ball estimate are:
- From June to Sept 2020 pricing declines according to CREB's minus 2-4% estimate for detached and attached housing. Apartments decline 5-7%
- In Sept the CEWS wage subsidy ends and a lot of companies counting on it turn to layoffs. Pricing declines on attached/detached over the next 6-12 months from Sept 2020 onwards get to 15% as forced sales increase. Apartment pricing declines 10-25%.
- WFH starts moving people towards larger homes back into the suburbs on the basis of 'bang for your buck'
- Purpose built rentals continue to saturate the apartment market and continue to drive apartment condo pricing downwards.
- A good number of small to medium developers crater, especially those focus on inner city infills and multi-family developments.
Just my guesses. As a person with a rental property I sincerely hope I'm wrong. Would love to hear what people in real estate are seeing.