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Old 07-16-2019, 04:58 PM   #683

Posted the 6 millionth post!
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Join Date: Feb 2002

Re: Tornadoes

Tornadoes are hard to scientifically relate to climate change for a variety of reasons. They are also only one element of extreme weather events in the larger climate change picture. No real disagreement there.

However, when you look at the stats of how many tornadoes there are (as posted on the previous page), you have to go one level deeper and look at where they're actually happening, and meta changes over time.

In the U.S. south particularly, there is an area called "Dixie Alley" which has seen a dramatic uptick in the number/frequency of tornadoes in recent decades. Whereas historically they have been prevalent on the Great Plains in the US (the traditional Tornado Alley), it has shifted southward and eastbound. Kansas, Oklahoma, etc. will still get their tornado patterns, but it's a downward trend towards frequency happening further east.

The Gulf of Mexico is warming - this is already scientifically proven, which when mixed with moist air, can create conditions for more tornadoes and extreme weather, especially early on in the season.

So while it's difficult to link tornado frequency as a whole to climate change, the shifting patterns of them may indicate changes in climate elsewhere, either enabling or reducing the severity of extreme weather events.

Haven't seen too much about Alberta (my comment earlier was tongue-in-cheek) but having events in Alberta that happen with varying frequency should not be simply written off as historical trends or "we had that event 30 years ago, #### happens". Hopefully environmental scientists can continue to produce research and evidence for climate change patterns and their impacts.
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