[accord1999]

Originally Posted by frinkprof

I'm saying that it's a big win in the context of who is representing the North Central communities politically. Sean Chu actually said early on that the North Central leg wasn't needed right now. Yes, he advocated against infrastructure in his ward. That the north central is getting the bone it is, is a win in that context.

But it's also clear that over the years, interaction with his communities has completely changed his mind and the stub of 16th Avenue would be completely unacceptable, especially to his re-election chances.

As for the "first things that gets canceled" bit, that won't be happening. If this is the phase 1 that gets approved, that's what's getting built. The whole first phase will be built concurrently and any cost overruns won't jeopardize either end because they will be mostly built by the time they would be realized. It's not like they will build the SE portion, see how it goes, then go ahead with the line to 16th Avenue.

We'll have to see how the actual sub-phases of construction are laid out. It might be that they build out from Shepard to downtown, saving the most expensive parts for last. I hope that they release the details of Phase 1.

Actually, the LRT has been almost entirely built in two extended building booms. The first was from 1978-1990 (the three lines mentioned above, plus an extension to Brentwood), then there was a long period of inactivity in the 90s (extensions to Crowfoot in the NW, Somerset in the south and the West Line were all planned and could have been built then). The second big building boom for the LRT was from 1999-2014. This included extensions to Fish Creek-Lacombe in 2001, Dalhousie in 2003, Somerset in 2004, McKnight-Westwinds in 2007, Crowfoot in 2009, Saddletowne in 2012, Tuscany in 2014 and the whole West line in 2012.

Given the much larger scale of the SE LRT compared to any one of the original legs plus the challenge of the tunnel, I'm fully expecting that the SE LRT will consume all the resources of this boom. The NC LRT will have to wait for the next boom, decades later and where it will still have to compete with extensions to the existing lines. After all, the NC has been skipped over every other train building boom, why not the next several?

You can't compare the American experience with building transit to the Canadian one. Full stop. Generally, in everywhere but New York City, the conversation in American cities is closer to "should we have transit?" In Canada it is "awesome, when do we get to build this thing?"

The appetite for transit projects in Canada's big cities is huge. The West LRT went over budget, but that's barely a blip on the political radar.

I see plenty of enthusiasm for light rail in the US, especially from the city level. It's only once projects get underway and the costs starting rising and promises are scaled back that the enthusiasm wanes. Honolulu was popular at $3 billion, but not so much when it's approaching $8 billion.

I also see no reason or evidence that Canadians or Calgarians are so much superior to Americans on project management and construction that Phase 1 will be built perfectly or that Calgarians will tolerate overruns or accept continual increases in taxes to pay for it. Even Vancouverites wouldn't accept a 0.5% sales tax increase to pay for mass transit.