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Old 07-13-2018, 08:56 AM   #151
Imported_Aussie
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A buyout of Brouwer while these RFAs are up for arbitration may be tied to the other negotiation: what happens with Hanifin's contract.

If Hanifin is bridged for, let's say, 2 years @ 3M AAV, then Hanifin + Brouwer = 7.5M AAV for 2 years, then Brouwer is replaced by a replacement level forward (1M AAV) and Hanifin gets a long term deal around 6.5M AAV

However, if Hanifin is open to a long term deal, then a buyout needs to happen, and the numbers can work out:
Brouwer buyout = 1.5M AAV (4 years)
Sign Hanifin to a deal in Jones/Ristolainen/Lindholm/Rielly range = 5.3M AAV
Start Mangiapane in the NHL = 705K AAV
= 7.505M AAV this year, then goes up a touch in future years, to keep years 5 & 6 (and 7 if signed that long) in better shape

Essentially, Hanifin bridged + Brouwer = roughly same cost as Hanifin long term, Brouwer bought out and replaced by forward on ELC.
I am looking at recent comparable RFAs, and assuming a bridge comes in at close to 4% of the cap and long term close to 7%. Hanifin isn't at Ristolainen/Jones level at signing, but draft pick range is close and performance is not much of a drop. He is close to Rielly and Lindholm (Hampus that is) and Trouba is a good bridge comparable, and Dumba is a floor (Hanifin better, but no other bridge as close)
Hanifin may want to bet on himself, like Trouba, who forced his way onto a bridge and is now up for big money, but this window coming up at least gives Treliving a shot to see if a long term deal can work for Hanifin, as at least financially, it can work for the Flames

Last edited by Imported_Aussie; 07-13-2018 at 09:02 AM.
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