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Old 01-11-2008, 02:22 PM   #19
Bobblehead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by burn_this_city View Post
They've started to tank in bc.. Our cabin on shuswap lake went from $450k to 1 mill and back to around $750k in the last 2-3 years..


Going back to the comments about how the economy is so strong still, I don't completely buy that arguement, the drilling sector still severely depressed, construction is already taking a hit, and there is high volume of people emigrating from the province at the moment.. I for one am predicting a significant decline in prices this year.. If people are in the market to buy I suggest low balling the asking price by at least 10-15%.. People can only hold on to two properties for so long before they drown..
What are the causes for the emmigration?
They can't get a job?
They can't get a good enough job?
They can't afford housing?
They made their money and are cashing out?

I personally think a big chunk are cashing out and heading "home", and many of the speculators are deciding that rather than hold the property they will take their profits. The big, expensive houses that were pushing the boom now don't see as much demand because the people who wanted them and could afford them now have them. People coming in to the market can't afford that segment unless they are coming in from another hot area (Van, Edm or TO).

Personally, when I bought my home it was in an area of the city I could afford, and for the first year of the boom my property values were seeing anything like what was being reported. But in the last year it has sure surged.

It all comes down to the fact that there is no way the housing market could keep going at the rate it did. To expect anything close is expecting a lot. Some segments will will contract, others (middle to low end) will continue along at a more historically reasonable rate. The only thing that I could foresee causing a crash would be something that would trigger a depression, and nothing that I see right now is like that in the west.
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