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Old 01-11-2008, 02:00 PM   #16
Bobblehead
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A few of those graphs seem to indicate the the market crashed in the 80s; it is bound to happen now. Yet it is obvious the scenarios are very different. In the 80s inflation was spiralling, interest rates were jumping to try and get inflation under control, and the NEP killed Calgary. NONE of those circumstances are in play right now. Oil broke the $100/barrel barrier, the employment rate in Calgary is still crazy, inflation is still under control, and while interest rates may seem high, that is only compared to recent times. It is still 1/3 or 1/4 what the rates were 25 years ago.

Housing demand may be down right now, but it is always down in the fall off the year. The lower end, affordable housing segment still seems to need more capacity, and that will lower teh value of average sales.

Your conclusion may end up being correct, but I don't think it will be because of the analysis you have provided here.
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