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Old 09-24-2019, 08:51 AM   #31
Lubicon
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So my learnings after week four:

1. The ACC is really, really bad. Outside of Clemson they all pretty much such, and some people actually have the conference ranked below some of the Group of Five conferences in terms of overall ability. The upside for Clemson is they should roll through the rest of their schedule and likely finish undefeated setting them up for a playoff spot. The downside is they won't really be tested. Also, they are effectively playing a elimination playoff game every week from here on in. With such a weak schedule even one loss would really do harm to their playoff chances.

2. The PAC 12 is overall probably the most balanced conference. Unfortunately they don't seem to have one or two elite teams like the other conferences and the effect is they are cannibalizing themselves. The top teams have all lost once now and it's only week 4. The conference still has an outside shot at at playoff but someone needs to run the table and then hope a 1 loss team is good enough to get in (for example if Clemson somehow loses).

2. Ohio State has played a weak schedule but looks ridiculously good right now. Their biggest hurdle is Wisconsin who they get at home this year. Keep up with how they are playing now and they look good at a playoff spot. Wisconsin also looks really good.

3. Notre Dame is better than I thought. Run the table the rest of the way and get a little help and having one loss (to Georgia) doesn't look so bad anymore. They still have a shot at a playoff.

4. the SEC has three really good teams (maybe four) but something has to give. LSU, Auburn, and Alabama all play each other ans someone is going to lose. The winners will be in the drivers seat to the playoffs but how does a one loss team look? Counting Georgia there could be several one loss teams in the SEC this year, does the committee take one of them over a one loss team from another conference?

Still much to be determined and it's way to early to speculate (but so much fun to do so!). As always almost everything will shake out over time and the picture becomes more clear.
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