Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylvanfan
If you add up all the records you have 258 total wins and 254 losses as opposed to 256 and 256.
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Ah ok, I see. I debated doing a range of outcomes for the teams instead of total W/L records but thought that might be too confusing. I'm doing this more as a relationship to the betting market than I am an overall prediction of how the league will turn out this year. You'll notice I also have 7/8 of 2018's division winners repeating, but we know from history that the likelihood of that happening is very slim.
My hope down the line if I can keep track of this for several seasons is to have enough of a database to determine which stats should be weighted more heavily than others. Right now I weigh PEW differential and record in one-score games the heaviest. I think there likely needs to be other stats included such as third down conversion rate, redzone success, etc. Anything that's high variance from year to year and not necessarily based on skill.