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Originally Posted by Toonage
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Thanks for linking.
Goalies are always tough to predict and I think looking holistically at a bigger sample is the best bet for goalies - and in that case Talbot performs well.
This image from the article really tells a story IMO.
If you limit it to guys who have played at least 10k minutes then Talbot is third on that list behind Gibson, and Andersen.
And looking at the other guys on the list a season of inconsistency for goalies is not out of the norm.
Price: Had a .900 save percentage in 17/18
Bobrovsky: Dropped to a .908 to bounce back to a .931 the following year
Halak: Bounced around a lot in his career.
Holtby: .907 in 17/18 and had lost his starting job before winning it back in the playoffs and leading the caps to a Cup
Greiss: .892 in 17/18 for the Islanders, only to bounce back to a .927 last year
Bishop: Dropped to a .910 in Tampa, lost his job to Vasy, and got traded. Ended up with a .934 again last season
So over the long term Talbot has been a top goalie, and really it's not that uncommon for goalies to have a "down season", especially in the small sample of less than 40 games that Talbot played in 18/19.
It's funny because the Oilers have done this before with Dubnyk, and it's almost the exact same scenario.
Dubnyk:
Over three seasons from 2010-2013: 120 games, .917 save percentage
Then in a single season during 13/14 (EDM/MTL): 34 games, .891 save percentage
Goes to Arizona/Minnesota and the following two years 2014-2016: 135 GP, .923 save percentage.
Talbot
Over three seasons from 2015-2018: 196 GP, .914 save percentage
Then in a single season in 18/19 (EDM/PHI): 35 GP, .892 save percentage
Hmm wonder if he could bounce back