Quote:
Originally Posted by Leondros
Can you tell me what the average consumer debt load was back then and the split between variable and fixed rate loans? Those would be large factors in terms of differences between the 80's and today. If we are in a scenario where the debt load is higher, and more variable, making them more sensitive to these increases than we are in a scenario where we don't need it to be 17 to 19% to be as impactful.
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There are obviously a number of factors there, and it's a lot to unpack. But let's even say the rate needs to get to half what it did then, you think rates are on the verge of tripling? That seems incredibly pessimistic.
Government intervention is an enormous difference and that's really only been a thing for the past 12-13 years. The original TARP in the US was nothing compared to the QE and associated programs we've seen since. Central banks and governments will throw a lot at the markets and economy to prevent a massive cratering. I don't think that's changed over the past 8-9 months.