Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
Even the absolute best team has no better than a 75% chance to win a given playoff series. Hell, 75% is generous. Hockey is simply a sport where there is a great deal of randomness and a lot of variance in outcomes owing to things like hot goaltenders, injuries, special teams and other factors.
Let's say Tampa has a 75% chance to win this series. They have, at best, a 60% chance to win round two, which will be against a very good team. Then given them a 60% chance to win round 3. That would give them about a 27% chance to make the cup final...
Similarly, it is very rare you see a hockey team with an 80% chance to win an individual game. It basically requires a really good team against a bad team with injuries starting its backup. It will more or less never happen in the playoffs. But even if you thought Tampa had an 80% chance to win every game against Columbus, they would still only have a 41% chance of a sweep.
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It's extremely rare for a team to have an 80% chance of winning an individual game? And only against bad teams with injuries and dressing their backups?
Dude, Tampa just won 76% of ALL their games this season. Against all comers.
On a rolling basis, in a full season there are 76 possible seven game series (ie games 1-7, 2-8, 3-9, etc). Tampa just won 75 out of 76 of them this year. That's 98.7% of their possible seven game stretches.
You are claiming that they will *probably* be eliminated in the first or second round. I'm not seeing it.