Quote:
Originally Posted by Zoller
Could a war help with inflation?
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Not at all
Considering the factors driving inflation include, probably in order of causation
Shortages due to rigid supply chains being surprised by robust demand and quickly pivoting economies. An aging population in rich countries consuming too much without producing, that will largely be exempted from the direct effects of war. A rebound effect from excessively pessimistic markets 2 years ago and stagflation over the past decade. The invention of 3.5 trillion dollars of unregulated financial assets out of whole cloth. (crypto currency if you didn't catch that). High government spending.
No a war would be likely to make at least 3 of those 5 factors worse, not better.
Also well not a fun thing, the average inflation rate over the last 3 years is like 2.1%, if this has been a steady increase rather than a dip and surge and if there weren't isolated market segments that have seen like 100% increase, we wouldn't be talking about inflation at all. Even at that a 4.9% inflation increase does not mean 4.9% additional spending for most consumers, normal people will have some costs locked in, and will adjust spending habits to the reality they live. I really do wish the news would provide an ounce of nuance to their reporting, and people weren't so eager to hop onto the fear freight train. Because inflation is a year over year measurement, as we get to March/April it will be very telling, when we work our way to 1 year after these jumps started happening we should start to see the rate of increase decline.