Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
I would be super interested in knowing this as well. I believe CVE's Foster Creek is post payout, how many others are there?
It seems like that could dramatically increase royalties if some big projects reach payout, especially if prices are high when that happens.
Alternatively, it might spur expansions to avoid hitting payout, which would be good for hiring in the province.
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It's not a complete list and there could be some mistakes, but here are the status of the larger projects with some rough estimates of payout:
SAGD
CVE Christina Lake & Foster Creek - post payout
COP Surmont - 2026+
SU Firebag - expected ~2021
CNQ Jackfish - Ph1&2 post payout, Ph3 expected ~2022
CNQ Primrose - post payout
MEG Christina Lake - expected ~2024
Mines
CNQ Jackpine - expected ~2022
CNQ Horizon - expected ~2023
CNQ Muskeg River - post payout
IMO Kearl - long time / never
SU base - post payout
SU Fort Hills - long time / never
Syncrude - post payout
So from those projects we could see somewhere around 700 - 800 mbbls/d of production reach payout in the next 3 years if oil prices continue at similar price levels. How much that actually equates to in incremental annual royalties is tough to say, but it's in the billions.