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Originally Posted by V
So as someone who knows nothing about the NBA, but has been interested in seeing some Finals action, do the Raptors even have a chance here? Are they going to get swept?
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It's what I'd refer to as a "puncher's chance". Here's what needs to happen for the Raptors to win:
GSW needs to continue to give up big runs. They're often careless with the basketball (which the Raptors can take advantage of better than any team), and while the Warriors love taking a quick 3, when they're not falling they spend a lot of time on defense. It's a bit of a cliche to say you can't beat the Warriors, only they can beat themselves; but I think it's true to say that the Warriors can play an absolutely unbeatable style of ball, but too often they don't.
While Warriors are being quiet about Durant's status, I think the Raptors need to assume that he's back at some point. Raptors need to be up in the series before that happens. They need to use this as motivation. If they get up 2-0, they've got a shot the rest of the way even if Durant returns.
Raptors need to at least tie on the glass. Rebounding was unquestionably a weak spot for the Raptors, but GSW doesn't bring waves of offensive rebounders at you like Milwaukee or Philly. The risk with GSW is more the long rebounds off of missed 3s.
Kawhi needs to be the best 4th quarter player in the series. There's no question that GSW is the better team, but it's possible that Kawhi is the best player (when looking at total impact) in this series. If the Raptors can keep games close down to the last 5 minutes of the fourth, they have the closer to give themselves a chance. Iguodala is the smartest individual defender that Leonard will face these playoffs, so the Raptors will need to work to put Leonard in favorable situations.
Raptors should be able to stay out of foul trouble. They were fighting foul trouble all the way through the last two rounds, but those teams had players that directly put pressure on the officials to make calls. Warriors, not so much. Their strength is that their offense doesn't need foul calls to be elite. I don't expect the Raptors to get a favorable whistle, but I do expect them to at least avoid needing to sit guys to avoid foul trouble.
There are lots and lots of reasons to think that GSW wins this series; I won't go into those, except to say that GSW is a clear step above Milwaukee or Philly, and so Toronto will need to be better than they were in those series, too. But there's a definite path to victory for the Raptors.