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Old 01-11-2008, 03:32 PM   #23
Radley77
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Join Date: Sep 2007
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I say prices could fall by 20% this year, and it may take 8+ years to reclaim there current peaks. There is massive amounts of speculation in the real estate market. In fact there are over 2000 properties listed in Calgary that are vacant or new construction right now. (www.findcalgary.ca)

The subprime market is causing spreads between long term bonds and mortgage rates to be at the greatest level since the 1980's recessions.



Everything is pointing to a serious downturn, affordability is worse than at previous booms, prices aren't substantiated by rental yields, carrying costs are as high as previous busts.

A 400 year study in same sale pairs on house prices has shown that houses appreciate on average at 0.2%/year above inflation. I would consider that another poster claimed 3%/year as normal appreciation (including inflation) is about right.
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