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Originally Posted by Jacks
I know they are basing that model on probabilities but seriously they are showing McDavid as 41% available at #2 and 6% available at #3. Then they have Eichel as 32% available at #3 and 5% at #4. That is just dumb.
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Not dumb if you understand the methodology, it's not just an average of draft rankings:
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This is not simply just an average of projections but instead a model based on Bayesian inference. Bayesian models begin with a 'prior' probability distribution, used as a reasonable first guess. Then that guess is refined as we add new information. It works the same way your brain does (hopefully). As more information is added, your prior belief is either confirmed or revised to some degree. The degree to which it is refined is a function of how reliable the new information is. This draft projection model works the same way.
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That's why they're not 100% to go 1, 2, because the model uses prior probability. Granted he did post a revised model with them being 100% to go 1, 2.