Quote:
Originally Posted by dustygoon
He says 77% chance he gets the guy he wants at 8 (werenski). How is he generating that probability? That 77% chance was the same before and after the Eichel pickv (duh). I say that because if he was running some model on his laptop, the odds would have changed slightly after the Eichel pick.
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It is some internal probability formula for sure but it was also significantly weighted towards the rankings.
McDavid
Eichel
Hanifin
Strome
Marner
Those guys were locks to go in the top 8. They knew they wouldn't get one of those guys.
That leaves a 1 in 3 chance of getting Werenski. With Provorov's stock increasing significantly days before the draft, it was safe to assume Philly or NJ was taking him, increasing the chance to 66%. I dont know how they got an extra 11% but that is likely the scenario.
I remember last year (or the year before) Columbus had a value chart for every pick in the draft. If the sum of the values totaled more then the sum of the values they were sending out, they did the deal unless there was a guy still on the board they really liked. I thought that was a really cool idea to maximize value in trades. Columbus is building their team the right way and could be pretty scary in the next few years.