I would treat it as any other instrument of speculation like subprime mortgages, penny stocks or tulip bulbs. Probably worthwhile for now, but I'd be looking to get out before you're the one left holding the bag.
It is absolutely NOT worth getting into mining. ASIC machines are quite new and so far, out of the 4 companies that took huge preorders (as these machines go for $2000+ a pop), only one has delivered. One company is still "testing". Another company just took everyone's money and ran. One company is delivering TINY amounts, while keeping the vast majority of machines to mine themselves. The companies all have huge backorders and will deliver on the order of months to years later.
By the time you get one (IF you get one), that huge computational power once again becomes a drop in the bucket, and will take quite a bit of time to recoup your costs assuming that bitcoins doesn't continue their exponential increase in value.
Now as a currency, I'm somewhat ambivalent to it. As a law-abiding, non-government-hating, regular joe-schmoe citizen, it has zero value to me. If you have the tin foil hats on regarding how the government is always out to screw you, then I think it might be worth holding some bitcoin on principle.
Personally I think the most ingenious innovation that props bitcoin's value up is the fact that a regular person can invest in mining as a get rich quick scheme. Keeps demand high because everyone thinks that THEY can be the one to mine some coins and get rich for nothing but electricity costs. Doing so, is obviously a much more difficult task (especially this late in the game), so I guess once people realize what's happening, the support for bitcoin will wane.
|