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Old 08-13-2020, 08:24 PM   #311
Baron von Kriterium
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Originally Posted by Harry Lime View Post
I must have read that wrong. Russia is the power in place to keep Turkey in check on the eastern border, and I read that they were working in tandem in Libya. My mistake.

In that case, I'm not sure what advantage Turkey is hoping for in opposing Russia in Libya. Seems strange.

Edit : Just took a look at your map. Isolation of Cyprus?
No worries. There is a lot going on in that part of the world and it is hard to keep track of the ever changing situation.

Turkey isn't in Libya to counter the Russians. The Russian support is really at arms length and that support is mainly advisors and providing intelligence to the LNA. There are definitely Russian private military contractors (PMCs) in Libya, though. The PMCs even fly surplus Russian planes that have been flown to Libya. The main military support to LNA comes from UAE.

The Turks are in Libya because the recognized government, GNA, invited them there. Now the Turks, like Russia, have a limited number of actual Turkish armed forces on the ground. The Turks are using proxies, too. They fly in Al Queda/ISIS maniacs from Idlib, Syria to do their bidding. There are upwards of 15,000 Syrian mercenaries in Libya. Turkey supplied plenty of drones, too, and they were used to great effect against LNA, forcing the LNA to withdraw from the outskirts of Tripoli iat the beginning of the summer.

Turkey certainly isn't some benevolent nation coming to the aid of another. Oh no. They have their own interests of course. The GNA is Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey has long sided with them, whether in Syria or Libya.

You hear or read things about Erdogan's desire for a neo-Ottoman Empire and you just want to roll your eyes. But I think the evidence is there to support that idea and Tripoli was a province in the Ottoman Empire. The GNA gave a concession to Turkey in order to secure Turkish intervention and that was to provide diplomatic immunity to all the mercs from Syria and any Turk actuals operating in Libya. Essentially, the Turks and their proxies are running around as occupiers now. If they can get ahold of the oil in Eastern Libya, so much the better.

There's also the idea that Erdogan is seeking revenge on the West with his adventure in Libya, which Turkey lost in 1912 in the Italo-Ottoman War. The GNA gave drilling rights to Turkey off the coast of Libya, denying the ambitions of Italy and France. This maritime agreement displeases the Greek and Cypriot governments but, to Erdogan, this agreement is necessary to provide some breathing room. That is, he feels cornered in his corner of the Mediterranean.
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