Jeremy McKenna
Whether he should be on the list is debatable, but I'm voting based on the players that appear on the list.
One dimensional goal scorer but scoring goals is the most difficult skill in hockey. Excellent at getting open and finding gaps in coverage which allows him to get his hard and accurate shot off. Also terrific on the powerplay. But, his defensive shortcomings significantly reduce his probability of success. Hockey is full of junior snipers who didn't pan out, but there are a few who have turned into mighty good scorers. Over 5 shots per game is insane.
Ceiling: 2nd line W
Probable: Tweener
Floor: Outright bust
After McKenna I don't see anyone else as having anything more than a remote probability of playing above the third line. While McKenna has higher likelihood of busting than some others, his ceiling remains the highest. In other words, his error bar carries more variability.
This is the point in voting where ceiling, to me, starts to give way to playing any games at all in importance. This is also the point where prospects can make big gains or losses in a one-year period of time.
The Pack
Ryan Lomberg
Luke Philp
Rinat Valiev
N/A
Nick Schneider
No hope
Spencer Foo
Mitchell Mattson
Linus Lindstrom
Andrew Nielsen
Justin Kirkland
Pavel Karnaukhov