Quote:
Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan
B.S. Tampa is a runaway favorite to go to the cup final.
Tampa Bay in 4, and it will be 4 very decisive wins. ZERO chance for the inconsistent Blue Jackets.
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This is not a realistic take. I'm picking Tampa in five, myself, but you're overestimating the extent that any outcome in this sport is predictable. Even the absolute best team has no better than a 75% chance to win a given playoff series. Hell, 75% is generous. Hockey is simply a sport where there is a great deal of randomness and a lot of variance in outcomes owing to things like hot goaltenders, injuries, special teams and other factors.
Let's say Tampa has a 75% chance to win this series. They have, at best, a 60% chance to win round two, which will be against a very good team. Then given them a 60% chance to win round 3. That would give them about a 27% chance to make the cup final. This lines up roughly with Dom Lucyszyn's calculation (
he has them at a 29% chance here).
Similarly, it is very rare you see a hockey team with an 80% chance to win an individual game. It basically requires a really good team against a bad team with injuries starting its backup. It will more or less never happen in the playoffs. But even if you thought Tampa had an 80% chance to win every game against Columbus, they would still only have a 41% chance of a sweep.
Tampa is easily, without a doubt, the best team in the league this year. And they're probably not going make the final. Just as the 95-96 Red Wings didn't make the final, despite being a better hockey team than this year's Lightning.