Quote:
Originally Posted by curves2000
I take it to mean that we are at a fork in the road from a large western support perspective. They will see what this package may be able to achieve on the battlefield but perhaps after this, it will be more of a European/Ukraine responsibility on the large things. I don't agree with that stance in a lot of ways but in a lot of ways, when Ukraine mentioned they need A, B, C , D and more in these quantities, and they get a lot less of everything, it makes you wonder. They wanted F16 and 3000 tanks, they got 300, a lot of which was blown up quickly and are awaiting a few f16's by the summer, maybe.
If it looks like Biden will lose the next election, it may be time then to help Ukraine with getting the best deal possible as opposed to what Trump may offer.
The days of the US providing tens of billions of dollars and continuing their level of involvement to these degree may be coming to an end in relatively quick fashion. That is why I am hoping that the US and the west send the required equipment to make enough of a dent to actual change things in Ukraine's favor
|
Who knows.
For comparison, the US budget cost of Afghanistan was at it's lowest at the 3rd-6th year period, about 15-20 billion per year, and at it's highest around the 10th-13th year period, at around 100 billion per year. Likewise in Iraq the US spending went up and down during that whole operation.
Point being, just because the interest in and willingness to spend on wars in far away places is down in the US right now, that doesn't mean the pendulum can't or won't swing another way just as easily. In fact it's almost guaranteed to do so.
I also think it's to some extent just political strategy to not try to push through these huge packages all at once. If you cut future packages into smaller pieces and generally make less noise about them, those pieces become less attractive targets for partisan grandstanding, and thus possible easier to push through.
At the end of the day, the war in Ukraine has been an absolute rainmaker for the US arms industry, and an opportunity for many militaries around the world to modernize their own equipment by eagerly sending the old equipment to Ukraine. That dynamic isn't about to change soon. Everywhere in the world, new weapons factories and production lines are being built, and once they are up and running they will want to keep churning. Since the war in Ukraine is good for the military-industrial complex, they will keep supporting it.
The West is also really still just getting into this fight. The packages promised earlier are still in the process of being delivered, and investments are starting to turn into producrs. Rheinmetal for example is currently building three new weapons factories (of unspecified type) in Ukraine, while both in Europe and in the US new production lines for artillery ammunition are still under construction. Western governments aren't going to let investments like that go to waste after they come online.
You are right that there doesn't seem to be a huge appetite for sending certain things to Ukraine, especially fighter jets and tanks, but really in a large scale attritional war like this, they aren't necessarily the most important weapons categories, especially if the air space remains contested. (Maybe if Ukraine would get them in massive numbers, but that was never going to happen.)
As things are right now, quantity mostly trumps quality at the Ukrainian frontlines. Bullets, artillery shells, drones, those are being spent in six figure numbers every month, and the most important hi-tech aid type is probably air defense.
Air defense is really the one category where US support is most crucial, as Europe doesn't really have much local air defense production. (An issue I think many European militaries are currently thinking about.) That's the most important thing in this package that already passed, and this package should last for a while.
The way I see it, it was already clear a year ago that this war isn't likely to be decided on the battlefield. Russia is however currently trying VERY hard to do just that, spending huge amounts of men and equipment to push the frontline on a level which is barely noticeable on the map.
I believe this is because Putin knows the Russian economy is on the clock, and will eventually suffer a collapse of some kind. Ukraine also knows this, which is why they've switched to targeting the Russian economy with attacks on Russian refineries. (They've managed to shut down an estimated 10-20% of Russian refinery capacity, which is definitely going to be felt in Russia, one way or another.)
So, I think the current level of support, especially after this package, is enough for Ukraine to stand their ground and keep grinding away. They will help immensely in stopping the next Russian offenses.
That already approved weapons aid also just saves Ukrainian lives, and helps make Russians pay even more for every inch of Ukrainian soil.
...and if it at any point it starts to look like the Russian economy can't keep up with the war, the appetite for sending new weapon types from the West might also go back up again.
I guess this was all a very longwinded way to say: the attention span and memory of US politicians are shorter than the events of this war. Sure, there's reason to worry about the future, as you said. However, by the time the next rounds of aid are being decided, the situation at the front will once again be different, and things said now will already be forgotten by then.
Meanwhile, the western support actually delivered is going to go up in the near future, as decisions already made a while back are just starting to turn into reality.
The West is just so superior to Russia economically, that even lukewarm support for Ukraine is enough to eventually crush Russia.