Eh, I'm honestly not sure. I think a whole swath of candidates have to drop out, and have their supporters redistribute themselves, before we know where we really stand. It's possible that Biden is in much better shape than he appears because he has a bunch of supporters-in-waiting hiding in, say, Tom Steyer's camp, or Julian Castro's camp, or Amy Klobuchar's camp, that collectively give him a 5-10 point bump. Or, maybe they decide, "screw it, Warren it is", and then this whole thing is over.
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