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Old 08-28-2019, 08:54 PM   #12
rubecube
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NFC South

New Orleans Saints
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 10-6

Vegas O/U Win Total: 10.5 (O +109, U -130)
2018 record: 13-3
2018 PEW: 11.5 (-1.5 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 55.6% (+5.6% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 50.7 (-27.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -125 (-124.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .714 winning percentage (+21.4% vs NFL Average)

I think the Saints are a very good team, but I also think the NFC South is going to be more competitive this year and I’m not surprised to see their numbers predicting a dip. They could also very easily win 11-13 games again, so I wouldn’t fault anyone for taking the over at its current price. For me, it’s a stay away.

Atlanta Falcons
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9 (O +116, U -138)
2018 record: 7-9
2018 PEW: 7.8 (+0.8 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 37.8% (-12.2% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 77.9 (-0.3 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -102 (+102.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 8, .500 winning percentage (= NFL Average)

You could easily talk me into 9-7 for this team but any higher is pushing it as they were unlucky but not tremendously so. I tend to think there isn’t a value play to be had here.

Carolina Panthers
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 9-7

Vegas O/U Win Total: 7.5 (O -173, U +144)
2018 record: 7-9
2018 PEW: 7.8 (+0.8 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 57.1% (+7.1 vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 103.8 (+25.6 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -28.5 (-12.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 10, .300 winning percentage (-20% vs NFL Average)

Why am I higher on the Panthers than the Falcons? Because the Panthers had more injury problems and less luck in one-score games last year. I think they’re also a sneaky good pick to win the division if there’s good value there. I wouldn’t touch this line though.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 7-9

Vegas O/U Win Total: 6.5 (O -114, U -104)
2018 record: 5-11
2018 PEW: 6.4 (+1.4 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 53.7% (+3.7 vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 128 (+49.8 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 181 (+181.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 11, .364winning percentage (-13.6% vs NFL Average)

The league leaders in AGL from last season also went 3-8 in one score games. I’d be shocked if they won less than 7 games and wouldn’t be surprised at all if they went 8-8 or 9-7 with a little luck on their side. I can’t say that the over is a great value but it looks like a lock if the wheels don’t completely fall off.
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