[rubecube]

AFC East

New England Patriots
Rube’s 2019 projection: 11-5

Vegas O/U Win Total: 11 (O -141, U +118)
2018 record – 11-5 (Super Bowl Champions)
2018 PEW: 10.8 (-0.2 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 45.7%
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 78.6 (+0.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 94 (+94.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 5, .600 winning percentage (+10% vs. NFL Average)

While it would be nice for non-Patriots fans to believe this team is heading for a decline, there really isn’t much to hang your hate on in terms of negative regression. The Pats were a very honest 11-5. While they benefited from penalties, they had negative fumble luck and were league average in the injury department. Their record in one-score games was higher than the league average but the sample size wasn’t big enough to indicate any kind of luck in that area either. Barring massive injury problems, this team should be a lock to win 11 games again. That said, unless you’re a Pats fan, I’d stay away from any kind of action on their win total because there’s absolutely zero value there.

Miami Dolphins
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 5-11

Vegas O/U Win Total: 4.5 (O -130, U +118)
2018 record – 7-9
2018 PEW: 5.1 (-1.9 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 41.2% (-8.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 95.3 (+17.1 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -122 (-121.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 8, .875 winning percentage (+37.5% vs. NFL Average)

It’s certainly looking like a long season in Miami. This is one of those examples where the eye test matches the data because the Dolphins on paper look like a bottom tier team. The positives, if you’re a Miami, fan is that they were “unlucky” in terms of FRR, AGL, and NPY. However, their .875 winning percentage in one-score games will absolutely regress this season. Moving that number to the NFL average would have given the Dolphins a 4-12 record last season. Accounting for that regression and splitting it with the positive regression they should see in other areas puts them at the 5-11 mark for me, but you could easily convince me of 4-12. Like the Pats, there’s not much value in taking action on the Vegas numbers.

Buffalo Bills
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 6-10

Vegas O/U Win Total: 6.5 (O -195, U +162)
2018 record – 6-10
2018 PEW: 5 (-1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 47.2% (-2.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 33.8 (-44.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -16 (-15.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 6, .500 winning percentage (= NFL Average)

There’s just nothing in the data to suggest that the Bills were any better than their 2018 record says they were. They were lucky in the injury department and pretty much par in every other department. It’s possible that Josh Allen takes a massive leap forward in year 2 like we see with many young QBs, but usually when that happens there are underlying numbers from the previous season to suggest as much and we just don’t see that here. I think taking the under on this one is a massive value play.

NY Jets
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 7 (O -177, U +147)
2018 record – 4-12
2018 PEW: 5.3 (+1.3 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 45.5% (-4.5% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 74.6 (-3.6 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -131 (-130.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 8, .250 winning percentage (= NFL Average)

The Jets are a great example of why I’m doing a more data-driven approach to gambling this year. If you had asked me to project their record without looking at the data, I would have probably gone with 6-10. However, upon looking at their stats, I can see that they're due for positive regression in almost every category. There’s not enough value for me to take the over, indicating that Vegas also sees them as closer to an 8-win team than a 7-win team.