The real victim of this price war is not the US shale industry. Those plays are just too variable and quick payout to ever be truly killed off (this trait does put a pretty firm ceiling on the price of oil for the forseeable future). They were just the short term victims (again, because of their variable nature).
The real victims are the mega projects that once running don't stop and take decades to pay out. That would be the Alberta oil sands and deep offshore plays. If I'm a capital dollar looking for a home, Saudi's actions have driven my risk premium on these long term mega projects way up. Which means my discount rate on their future cash flows has gone way up. Which means their net present value has gone way down.
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