It is interesting to think about how to best measure the production of Neal.
The McDavid impact is a very real thing. One almost needs to calculate expected production of a replacement player for the Oilers, such that you are measuring their expected production based on time with McDavid (including PP). Production above that represents the true value.
I’m not saying this tongue in cheek. We’ve seen real example (Chiasson) where McDavid can turn a replacement level player into a 20 goal man.
Neal’s even strength production, when not playing with McD, is a measure of his true effectiveness. And then anything on the PP above what a plug could do.
But there’s no question its been a good trade for them.
Doesn’t change my feelings much about it. I had my doubts that he would reach the requirements for the Flames to get the third, so the fact they didn’t get any additional benefit beyond the cap savings always bothered me. Now that a pick is looking quite certain, I actually feel better about it.
The organization needs to start getting more picks. I think teams that have sustained success are able to build their roster, while also having more than the minimum of picks. I’d like to see the club strive for 5 picks in the first 3 rounds every year.
I know the media loves to focus on this trade because it is a very easy story to tell and allows for clever nick names like “Real Steal”. But the considerations behind the deal are far more nuanced, and I do think that ultimately is will be considered a win-win by those that consider those nuances.
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