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Old 09-10-2020, 08:16 PM   #48
bizaro86
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More math: in 2019 the government paid out approximately $76 billion for OAS/GIS/EI.

In 2018 AB budgeted 1.1 billion for AISH. I think our rates are higher than most, but figure $10 billion on that across the country.

That would get you to $86 billion, and you probably need $200-300 billion per year.

From here: https://www.canada.ca/en/department-...19/report.html

I get that GST was $38.2 billion last year. Probably need to put that to 10-15%. That gets you either $38 or $76 billion. While the higher rates will cause less spending and more avoidance, the UBI money probably generates new gst spending as well, so call it a wash.

From the same source EI premiums were $22 B. That's with a cap at relatively modest levels. If you keep that as a UBI tax and uncapped it you can probably add another $10-15 B.

Taking my higher estimates for new revenues and the midpoint of my cost estimate ($250B) leaves a $73 billion hole.

Personal income tax was $163.9 B, so it probably rates would need to go up by about 45%. There would be more avoidance, but extra tax on the UBI would help offset.

So basically, in exchange for UBI for all you have to cancel OAS/GIS/EI, replace EI premiums with an uncapped version, add 10% extra GST, and increase personal income taxes by 45%. So the Federal brackets would go from 15%/20.5%/26%/29%/33% to something like 22%/30%/38%/42%/48%
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