And on that note, new CBS / YouGov polls out this morning show Biden continuing to lead in all 3 of the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, and polling at around 52% among likely voters in all 3.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1h5X...pKbgC8Lws/view
I have not posted a lot of polls in this election cycle—part of that is there have been so very, very many that it seems pointless to pick one out of the lineup and focus too heavily on it. YouGov is an online pollster for what that is worth but uses demographic weighting to arrive at a modeled electorate. Nate Silver has them as B rated.
At 11 AM Siena/NY Times will release a poll of Texas. That’s an A-rated pollster so it will be interesting to see how they see the State shaping up.
Two complications in terms of reading into that data when it arrives: first, all interviews were prior to the last debate, so if that moved the needle in Texas we won’t know. Second, early voting has been HUGE in Texas—now over 70% of 2016 turnout—so maybe there is less of a needle to move anyway. Hard to say; I don’t know the counties well enough to prognosticate on the outcome based on early voting but it’s notable that turnout appears to be very high in Houston and Austin, and lagging a bit in El Paso (but still higher than the 2016 benchmark). Keep in mind although Texas is huge, and traditionally republican, it probably has relatively fewer “rural white” voters vs suburban voters so if there is a suburban revolt against Trump that could have unpredictable effects in a place like Texas.
Oh, and another poll of Georgia shows the race very close.
https://www.ajc.com/politics/ajc-pol...FQCYWF3X2TAHA/