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GranteedEV · 11-01-2018, 08:01 AM

Something has nagged away at me for the last year and that's the fact that the Flames abandoned Bennett as a center and decided to make him a full time winger. The reason this is the case is because my eyes keep telling me that Bennett was not only a solid two-way center, but easily one of the three best on this roster (not including Lindholm, who obviously hasn't been here for long).

The obvious argument against Bennett as a center is that he didn't put up enough points at the position, and there are many visual anecdotes as for why, usually talking about "not utilizing linemates". But my rebuttal is as follows:

Is outscoring the opponent 3:2 less valuable than outscoring the opponent 3:2 if the latter just means more goals for everyone?

That is to say, if a center is making "safer" plays, and the grand result is that the Flames are outscoring the opponent when his line is on the ice, why must this be scrutinized more than if he were making scoring plays that result in more goals for, but even more goals against? Below I've attached the results of the two winger pairs, along with all of the centers who saw at least 100 minutes of ice time between those wingers pairs whenever multiple centers did so. All statistics are score-adjusted. Obtained From Corsica.Hockey.

Legend
TOI - time on ice (5v5 minutes)
GF% - Goals For Percentage
xGF% - expected Goals For Percentage
Rel - performance relative to how the team was performing in those same games
ZSR - Faceoff Zone Start Ration

That's not... a whole lot of difference. At the very least, to me it doesn't seem like the kind of difference that makes one player a failed center while the other two are career centers.

So why did it look that way to the eye test?

Because Bennett spent more time with Versteeg and Brouwer than the other centers did over that two year span. Even though all five of these lines were outscoring opponents, the actual scoring opportunities themselves weren't there whenever Brouwer was involved. Meanwhile, Gaudreau and Monahan and the 3M line were all attached to the hip, leaving Bennett with the extras.

But let's set that aside for a moment and get to what I really want to talk about:

Sam Bennett's defensive play. To me, centers are most effective when they:

- support their defensemen below the hash marks, including the net front area
- support all four skaters by creating passing lanes for clean breakouts
- pressure the puck to help clog the neutral zone
- get the puck out of forechecking pressure without throwing it away

And my visual observation was always that Bennett did these things not just well, but especially well. He made it possible for the team to employ guys like Matt Bartkowski because he covered for their shortcomings in the defensive zone. None of these areas have much to do with offensive production. How can you ever use points to evaluate these things? Yes - The Flames played very low event hockey when Bennett was on the ice and this hurt his statistics - but it kept games within reach and I believe played a part in our playoff push even the goals and assists weren't coming.

The problem the Flames ran into in 2017-18 was that the third line wasn't scoring. Brouwer had worn out his top nine opportunity, Versteeg gave the puck away in the offensive zone multiple times per game before he was finally shut down, Jagr's hands had left him behind, and Bennett's puck luck hit career lows. The solution to this was obvious - call up Mark Jankowski. I do not disagree this was supposed to help the third line because it added a mobile, skilled forward to a line that needed one.

The problem? I believe Jankowski is inferior to Bennett in the defensive areas I outlined above. This manifested in a third line that was no longer playing a tight checking game but instead reliant on making the most of its offensive zone time. Bennett's edges, puck skills, and general ability to dominate away from the puck - both physically and with positioning - were both limited on the wing and Jankowski struggled with the responsibilities inherent to the position. Even though the Flames upgraded notably from Bartkowski to Kulak around the seventh or eighth game of the season, they threw away any advantage that might have brought by forcing Jankowski to play as the 3C. At least, that's my assertion. Do the numbers back up what my eyes told me?

Perhaps the easiest way to confirm or deny that is by looking at expected goals against rates. It's easy to have a control because Stajan, Backlund, and Monahan were the 1, 2, and 4 centers in both 2017-18 and 2016-17.

So between the two years:

Backlund's xGA was somehow identical.
Stajan's chance suppression improved.
Monahan's chance suppression got worse by -0.25. A pretty big drop off.

The switch from Bennett to Jankowski though? That was a drop of expected goals of -0.4 - the most significant dropoff and while it doesn't outright confirm what my eyes told me, I think it's worth considering - because I didn't know the numbers before right now. Maybe that's just confirmation bias but I do contend the 2017-18 Flames as a team didn't play the tight checking neutral zone game they were capable of, and this felt to my eyes the main reason why.

Either way, it's my opinion that Sam Bennett is a solid two-way center. Even if he were to not score at greater than a third line rate, that's acceptable because he won't give much up defensively if he's at center. He can't impact the game the same way at wing, and I do not believe Jankowski can impact the same way as 3C. From what I have observed, Ryan is also not as strong or impactful defensively. Czarnik might be a good center but he was outright signed to be a winger. Dube is a rookie. Of these five players, it's insane we haven't tried Bennett down the middle as the third line center. He's hardly scoring as a winger so that's not much of an excuse either.

Additionally, and I acknowledge it's a minor point, but while Bennett hasn't played center regularly for almost a year, he's actually improved on the faceoff dot to 55.3% the last season and this whereas he was sitting at 46.1% in his first two years. He may be a guy you want taking faceoffs now, which may have caused his line to struggle in the offensive zone more earlier in his career ( I don't believe it affected his defensive play, though). Bennett has even won 11 of 16 faceoffs he's taken this year and many of them have been clean wins - in the last game Rick Ball was quite surprised at Bennett's win but if that's something you can begin to depend on, he may even be the best option on the left circle faceoff during the penalty kill and power play - as great as Backlund is he tends to lose those draws.

Finally, I want to remind everyone of how he was arguably our best 5 on 5 player in the 2016-17 playoffs. Treliving even said this in an interview. How can a player be a failed center if he's going head to head against a guy like Ryan Kesler successfully?

I want to see any of the following third lines be tried:

Czarnik-Bennett-Neal
Frolik-Bennett-Neal
Jankowski-Bennett-Neal (it's different from Bennett-Jankowski-Neal even though it's the same players)
Dube-Bennett-Neal (likewise)
Ryan-Bennett-Neal (likewise)

These are five third line combinations that could help us not only improve game-to-game, but possibly become a 2B line as right now our third line's weakest link is consistently the center. The Czarnik option is especially appealing. We've scratched him because he, dube and ryan would be too undersized together. This option keeps him in the top 9 (where he probably belongs), and it keeps him in games (where he definitely belongs).

11-01-2018, 08:01 AM	#1
GranteedEV Franchise Player Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Calgary Exp:	Sam Bennett at center - Why I Do Not Believe It Was A Failure Something has nagged away at me for the last year and that's the fact that the Flames abandoned Bennett as a center and decided to make him a full time winger. The reason this is the case is because my eyes keep telling me that Bennett was not only a solid two-way center, but easily one of the three best on this roster (not including Lindholm, who obviously hasn't been here for long). The obvious argument against Bennett as a center is that he didn't put up enough points at the position, and there are many visual anecdotes as for why, usually talking about "not utilizing linemates". But my rebuttal is as follows: Is outscoring the opponent 3:2 less valuable than outscoring the opponent 3:2 if the latter just means more goals for everyone? That is to say, if a center is making "safer" plays, and the grand result is that the Flames are outscoring the opponent when his line is on the ice, why must this be scrutinized more than if he were making scoring plays that result in more goals for, but even more goals against? Below I've attached the results of the two winger pairs, along with all of the centers who saw at least 100 minutes of ice time between those wingers pairs whenever multiple centers did so. All statistics are score-adjusted. Obtained From Corsica.Hockey. Legend TOI - time on ice (5v5 minutes) GF% - Goals For Percentage xGF% - expected Goals For Percentage Rel - performance relative to how the team was performing in those same games ZSR - Faceoff Zone Start Ration That's not... a whole lot of difference. At the very least, to me it doesn't seem like the kind of difference that makes one player a failed center while the other two are career centers. So why did it look that way to the eye test? Because Bennett spent more time with Versteeg and Brouwer than the other centers did over that two year span. Even though all five of these lines were outscoring opponents, the actual scoring opportunities themselves weren't there whenever Brouwer was involved. Meanwhile, Gaudreau and Monahan and the 3M line were all attached to the hip, leaving Bennett with the extras. But let's set that aside for a moment and get to what I really want to talk about: Sam Bennett's defensive play. To me, centers are most effective when they: - support their defensemen below the hash marks, including the net front area - support all four skaters by creating passing lanes for clean breakouts - pressure the puck to help clog the neutral zone - get the puck out of forechecking pressure without throwing it away And my visual observation was always that Bennett did these things not just well, but especially well. He made it possible for the team to employ guys like Matt Bartkowski because he covered for their shortcomings in the defensive zone. None of these areas have much to do with offensive production. How can you ever use points to evaluate these things? Yes - The Flames played very low event hockey when Bennett was on the ice and this hurt his statistics - but it kept games within reach and I believe played a part in our playoff push even the goals and assists weren't coming. The problem the Flames ran into in 2017-18 was that the third line wasn't scoring. Brouwer had worn out his top nine opportunity, Versteeg gave the puck away in the offensive zone multiple times per game before he was finally shut down, Jagr's hands had left him behind, and Bennett's puck luck hit career lows. The solution to this was obvious - call up Mark Jankowski. I do not disagree this was supposed to help the third line because it added a mobile, skilled forward to a line that needed one. The problem? I believe Jankowski is inferior to Bennett in the defensive areas I outlined above. This manifested in a third line that was no longer playing a tight checking game but instead reliant on making the most of its offensive zone time. Bennett's edges, puck skills, and general ability to dominate away from the puck - both physically and with positioning - were both limited on the wing and Jankowski struggled with the responsibilities inherent to the position. Even though the Flames upgraded notably from Bartkowski to Kulak around the seventh or eighth game of the season, they threw away any advantage that might have brought by forcing Jankowski to play as the 3C. At least, that's my assertion. Do the numbers back up what my eyes told me? Perhaps the easiest way to confirm or deny that is by looking at expected goals against rates. It's easy to have a control because Stajan, Backlund, and Monahan were the 1, 2, and 4 centers in both 2017-18 and 2016-17. So between the two years: Backlund's xGA was somehow identical. Stajan's chance suppression improved. Monahan's chance suppression got worse by -0.25. A pretty big drop off. The switch from Bennett to Jankowski though? That was a drop of expected goals of -0.4 - the most significant dropoff and while it doesn't outright confirm what my eyes told me, I think it's worth considering - because I didn't know the numbers before right now. Maybe that's just confirmation bias but I do contend the 2017-18 Flames as a team didn't play the tight checking neutral zone game they were capable of, and this felt to my eyes the main reason why. Either way, it's my opinion that Sam Bennett is a solid two-way center. Even if he were to not score at greater than a third line rate, that's acceptable because he won't give much up defensively if he's at center. He can't impact the game the same way at wing, and I do not believe Jankowski can impact the same way as 3C. From what I have observed, Ryan is also not as strong or impactful defensively. Czarnik might be a good center but he was outright signed to be a winger. Dube is a rookie. Of these five players, it's insane we haven't tried Bennett down the middle as the third line center. He's hardly scoring as a winger so that's not much of an excuse either. Additionally, and I acknowledge it's a minor point, but while Bennett hasn't played center regularly for almost a year, he's actually improved on the faceoff dot to 55.3% the last season and this whereas he was sitting at 46.1% in his first two years. He may be a guy you want taking faceoffs now, which may have caused his line to struggle in the offensive zone more earlier in his career ( I don't believe it affected his defensive play, though). Bennett has even won 11 of 16 faceoffs he's taken this year and many of them have been clean wins - in the last game Rick Ball was quite surprised at Bennett's win but if that's something you can begin to depend on, he may even be the best option on the left circle faceoff during the penalty kill and power play - as great as Backlund is he tends to lose those draws. Finally, I want to remind everyone of how he was arguably our best 5 on 5 player in the 2016-17 playoffs. Treliving even said this in an interview. How can a player be a failed center if he's going head to head against a guy like Ryan Kesler successfully? I want to see any of the following third lines be tried: Czarnik-Bennett-Neal Frolik-Bennett-Neal Jankowski-Bennett-Neal (it's different from Bennett-Jankowski-Neal even though it's the same players) Dube-Bennett-Neal (likewise) Ryan-Bennett-Neal (likewise) These are five third line combinations that could help us not only improve game-to-game, but possibly become a 2B line as right now our third line's weakest link is consistently the center. The Czarnik option is especially appealing. We've scratched him because he, dube and ryan would be too undersized together. This option keeps him in the top 9 (where he probably belongs), and it keeps him in games (where he definitely belongs). __________________ "May those who accept their fate find happiness. May those who defy it find glory." Last edited by GranteedEV; 11-01-2018 at 08:40 AM.