Quote:
Originally Posted by VANFLAMESFAN
I know filling the worst case scenario card is your thing(for reasons unknown), but even with the flames on a bye week, im curious how you think the flames could be in 12th by next week? I don't think it's mathematically possible even with worst case scenario out of town scoreboards between now and next Saturday.
|
Interesting, and it is a good question. Here are the numbers of games for teams in 9–12 spots behind the Flames while they are idle next week:
Anaheim: 3 games
Colorado: 2 games
San Jose: 3 games
Minnesota: 0 games
The two wildcard teams play 0 games (Chicago) and 3 games (Dallas) respectively.
The Flames will play their final game tomorrow; The Wild, Ducks, Avalanche and Stars all play today, and the Wild and Hawks also play tomorrow. So, here is the worst case scenario for next Saturday:
Let us say that Calgary loses on Sunday, leaving them with 52 its in 45GP and 22 ROW. Dallas plays Colorado, so only one of those teams can win. For this exercise I will pick Colorado. If all the teams playing this weekend win all their games, here is how they will slot on Monday:
Pac #3. Cgy 45GP 52 Pts 22 ROW
WC #1. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
WC #2. Chi 45GP 52 Pts 23 ROW
#9. Dal 44GP 51 Pts 21 ROW
#10. Col 42GP 49 Pts 22 ROW
#11. Anh 44GP 49 Pts 23 ROW
#12. SJ 40GP 48 Pts 19 ROW
Calgary remains in the Division slot, Chicago and Dallas swap places, which means that in the worst case scenario they would enter play next Saturday in a tie with Chicago, but with -1 ROW.
Here is how the rest of the week will pan out:
Next week Anaheim plays Colorado, and Colorado plays SJ. For this exercise we will pick Pacific teams to win, which will mean it will be impossible for Colorado to pass the Flames. With wins for everyone else, here is how the standings would break down when the Flames play again next Saturday.
Pac #3. Anh 47GP 55 Pts 26 ROW
WC #1. Dal 47GP 57 Pts 24 ROW
WC #2. SJ 43GP 54 Pts 22 ROW
#9. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
#10. Chi 45GP 52 Pts 23 ROW
#11. Cgy 45GP 52 Pts 22 ROW
#12. Col 42GP 49 Pts 22 ROW
So, in the worst case scenario the Flames are actually in eleventh, two points out of the playoffs with SJ holding two games in hand, and three points back of the Division #3 slot with two games in hand on Anaheim. However, they will also remain only five points back of LA, and with four games in hand (LA having gained only two points in their next four games, thanks to losses to SJ and Anaheim (x2).
Bear in mind that this is the WORST CASE SCENARIO. In truth, not all of these teams will win all of the games I projected for this exercise. In truth, if this is the absolute worst that can happen between now and next weekend, then I would say the Flames are in good shape heading into the break. I would actually suggest that chances are very good they will still find themselves in a playoff spot when they come out of it next week. If they manage to win tomorrow, then they most certainly will.