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Bunk · 10-17-2018, 09:34 AM

At this point, I have to think the plebiscite will go down and be pretty lopsided at that.

A few things didn't happen that needed to, in my view:

- they needed to have either a budget games that cost less than $5b, or have a $5b games that gave you more "stuff". Right now, it's a budget games, but still quite expensive. The City is trying to be ultra conservative with budget - which is great (a $1b, 20% contingency is good), but it also produces sticker shock.

- they needed a clear and early commitment from the Provincial and Federal Governments. You have a late commitment from the Province and it leaves a budget gap, at that. No real commitment from the Feds and we're 4 weeks out from a plebiscite.

- we had a really strong position of leverage with the IOC. This enabled us to recycle venues, but probably did not do enough on the revenue side. A lot of public money is still needed.

- they let the (long) public debate happen without enough details that were clear. People were only debating an idea - one with a partner in the IOC that was starting from a deficit in public trust.

- officials on the yes side did not even bother to stick their neck out to advocate from their positions of influence. I called the Mayor out on this point in my podcast. The no side had no qualms about speaking loudly and clearly about their objections. This has certainly shaped public opinion. The yes side all along has relied on "if it's a good deal", but that deal has not yet materialized.

I still firmly believe with the right deal this would be a great thing for Calgary. But without that deal emerging, it's an extremely difficult case to make. The City and BidCo are going to have to pull a rabbit out of the hat with a bigger IOC/Fed contribution, an arena. Something.

10-17-2018, 09:34 AM	#1122
Bunk Franchise Player Join Date: Jul 2006 Exp:	At this point, I have to think the plebiscite will go down and be pretty lopsided at that. A few things didn't happen that needed to, in my view: - they needed to have either a budget games that cost less than $5b, or have a $5b games that gave you more "stuff". Right now, it's a budget games, but still quite expensive. The City is trying to be ultra conservative with budget - which is great (a $1b, 20% contingency is good), but it also produces sticker shock. - they needed a clear and early commitment from the Provincial and Federal Governments. You have a late commitment from the Province and it leaves a budget gap, at that. No real commitment from the Feds and we're 4 weeks out from a plebiscite. - we had a really strong position of leverage with the IOC. This enabled us to recycle venues, but probably did not do enough on the revenue side. A lot of public money is still needed. - they let the (long) public debate happen without enough details that were clear. People were only debating an idea - one with a partner in the IOC that was starting from a deficit in public trust. - officials on the yes side did not even bother to stick their neck out to advocate from their positions of influence. I called the Mayor out on this point in my podcast. The no side had no qualms about speaking loudly and clearly about their objections. This has certainly shaped public opinion. The yes side all along has relied on "if it's a good deal", but that deal has not yet materialized. I still firmly believe with the right deal this would be a great thing for Calgary. But without that deal emerging, it's an extremely difficult case to make. The City and BidCo are going to have to pull a rabbit out of the hat with a bigger IOC/Fed contribution, an arena. Something. __________________ Trust the snake.