Quote:
Originally Posted by PeteMoss
I want to see proof this is true.
Regression to the mean would lead me to believe it is much more likely that the player is going to return to his normal performance level.
Take the goalies out of this equation and substitute in Gaudreau or Monahan. They've both struggled post all star game before last night. Do you believe they those 4 weeks or whatever it was is more likely to predict their future performance or the full season worth of being good. I could come in here and put up Monahan's PPG stats for the last 5 weeks and say he's a 3rd line centre or I could believe the full season and say he's fine on the top line.
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You didn't understand what I wrote. I said the full season stats would give a better indication of long term future performance - i.e. Next year. If you are looking to see who's playing better heading into the POs, I'd look at recent trends.