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Old 04-04-2015, 10:25 AM   #39
OMG!WTF!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CliffFletcher View Post
All booms end. All of them. Many end in crashes.

The human mind is remarkable in how easily it sheds all memory of earlier crashes and convinces itself that the current boom is a new normal that will endure forever.
I think you're right, all "booms" end. But it's what happens after that is more intresting. Typically any traded commodity tends to revert to its underlying trend. If the real estate market had been trending upwards, then goes into a parabolic up trend, it will likely go back down to where its fomer up trend was and continue that trend. Since the Canadian housing market has been in a slow upward trend, it would be logical that it reverses, goes down, hits the upward trend line and starts going back up again.

There are all kinds of fundamental reasons that back this up....inflation, population growth, demand/supply correction, government policy. The 2008 crash did exactly that. Knowing this, I'd probably wait unil the upward trend resumes before I sold anything.

Quote:
If I have no intention of selling my house in the next 30 years, what good does treating my house as an investment do me? If the market drops 30 per cent in the next three years and then gradually picks up over 12 years back to its current valuation, that's no different to me than if it stayed steady the whole time.
Just the fact that you have money in it and it's part of a traded market makes it an investment. Of course stability trumps return on this investment, but factually it still is an investment and as such can go up or down a life altering amount. If you can do things to optimize that investment without causing too much stress then why not. Living anywhere for 30 years will create a huge bill in maintaining or replacing your asset. Selling even once every ten years when the life of your house is in its prime could save you that monster renovation bill most home owners don't think about. I'm not saying you should time the market and try to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. But I have yet to met a single person who charges themselves a condo fee on their single family home.

Last edited by OMG!WTF!; 04-04-2015 at 10:38 AM.
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