[Baron von Kriterium]

Recap for the first two days of “Fountain/Spring/Source of Peace:

At this time, the Turks and their Jihadist proxies have taken about 15-20 villages, clearly intending to envelop the larger towns and force the defenders (and civilians) to flee.

The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) are performing strikes along the entire border east of the Euphrates. They are targeting warehouses, barracks, training camps, and administrative buildings to a depth of 10-15 km inside Syrian territory mainly using long-range artillery. The Turks are using drones up to 50 km inside Syria. They are targeting warehouses, training grounds, and infrastructure.

By the end of the first day (Wednesday), and after more than 180 targets hit, TAF began their ground assault. It hasn’t been haphazard and has been very meticulous (for the Turks).

First, reconnaissance in force in the direction of Tel-Abyad (TA) and Ras-al-Ayn (RAA). The attacking formations encountered resistance, organized at the outskirts of the populated places, reconnoitered the defense system and points and retreated during the night (this is a favourite Syrian Tiger tactic - the Turks finally learned something).

This morning (Syrian local time) - after analysing the actual disposition of the Kurdish defenses - TAF took the decision to perform two main strikes - in the direction of TA and Ayn-Issa - by doing this, they cut off the Kurdish formations operating in the Manbidj area from the other parts of the enclave.

The Kurds have a couple of options here:

a. retreat to the east; or

b. reconcile and appeal to the SAA for help and protection. Unfortunately for the Kurds, Damascus has given them the FU finger. For several years, the Kurds could have reconciled with Damascus, but they didn’t. The Kurds do not have any leverage now with Damascus.

Judging from recent history (Afrin), the Kurds will choose a third option which is to do nothing, and that is typical of SDF leadership.