[rubecube]

AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 10-6

Vegas O/U Win Total: 10.5 (O -113, U -105)
2018 record – 12-4
2018 PEW: 11 (-1 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 53.9% (+3.9% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 60.8 (-17.4 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -272 (-271.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 9, .556 winning percentage (+5.6% vs NFL Average)

The Chiefs are definite candidates for some regression, thought I do question by how much. They were lucky in most categories but not by a wide margin. Still, with the average rate of regression for teams with negative differentials being around 2.6, 10 wins seems like a safe bet but I’m not confident enough to take the under on this one because there’s really no value in doing so.

Los Angeles Chargers
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 9-7

Vegas O/U Win Total: 9.5 (O -152, U +127)
2018 record – 12-4
2018 PEW: 10.6 (-1.4 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 46.3% (-3.7% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 100 (+21.8 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): -139 (-138.3 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 7, .857 winning percentage (+35.7% vs NFL Average)

-1.4 is a notable differential because it usually foreshadows a pretty big drop the following season. Usually when I see anything over +1 or -1 I can very quickly find several categories that paint a narrative on ways in which the team was fortunate. The Chargers, however, were unlucky in most categories except for one-score games. If you drop their one-score game percentage to NFL average, you get a 9.5-win team, which matches what Vegas has them pegged for. However, I put a bit more stock into the differential than I do the other categories, so I’d be fairly comfortable taking the under at the value it’s at.

Denver Broncos
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 8-8

Vegas O/U Win Total: 7 (O -114, U-104)
2018 record: 6-10
2018 PEW: 7.4 (+1.4 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 56.1% (+6.1% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 76.2 (-2 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 21 (+21.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 10, .400 winning percentage (-10% vs NFL Average)

Remember what I just said about the Chargers? Basically, apply the reverse of all of that to the Broncos. The Broncos were a team who were average to slightly lucky in most categories, but their PEW differential was +1.4, which usually means their headed for a few extra wins this year. I don’t think there’s a tonne of value in the over, but it is a likely winner if you bet it.

Oakland Raiders
Rube’s 2019 Projection: 4-12

Vegas O/U Win Total: 6 (O -104, U -114)
2018 record: 4-12
2018 PEW: 3.7 (-0.3 differential)
Fumble recovery rate (FRR): 38.2% (-11.8% vs. NFL average)
Adjusted games lost (AGL): 81.7 (+3.5 vs NFL Average)
Net penalty yards (NPY): 10 (+10.7 vs. NFL Average)
One-score games: 6, .500 winning percentage (= NFL Average)

Honestly, I wish I could provide some good news about the Raiders, but the numbers just don’t back it up. They were very unlucky in the fumbles department but just about average everywhere else. In other words, they were exactly what their final record said they were. Much like what I said regarding the over with the Broncos, there’s not a tonne of value in taking the under here but you’ll probably win your bet.