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Old 12-06-2021, 06:04 PM   #5151
Ate 100 Treadmills
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Join Date: Mar 2006

Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
Sure it could just be a statistical anomaly. But it's a pretty significant difference that's contrary to what you'd expect given that people with comorbidities and that are more prone to severe disease after being infected are vaccinated at a higher rate than the general population.

And it's potentially explainable based on demographic makeup of the groups. Throughout the pandemic, the Arabic and Ultra-Orthodox populations in Israel have had a lower risk ratio for testing positive via PCR compared to the general Jewish population while having a significantly higher risk ratio for mortality. That implies a pretty significant undercounting of cases among those groups, which would skew this paper's data given that they make up a significant and outsized portion of the Recovered group.
Once again, the biggest factor is likely just that some people will get severe disease no matter what due to co-morbidities. For example, my aunt has Lupus and has been vaccinated, but cannot produced anti-bodies because she's on immune suppressing drugs.

So if you have X percentage of the population that is going to get severe disease, the more effective the immunity, the higher the percentage of people who do get a breakthrough case that will become severe. For example, if you had extremely effective vaccine you would see fewer breakthrough cases in total and, therefore, a higher proportion of those breakthrough cases would have those co-morbidities that always lead to severe cases.
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