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Old 12-06-2021, 03:58 PM   #5143
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Join Date: Apr 2007

Originally Posted by blankall View Post
It triples, but still remains very low, at 30.2/100,000. Obviously, getting vaccination further adds to protection.

You're also looking at numbers and not rates of severe infection:

Rates of severe infection within the recovered are much less than the just vaccinated, unless booster shots are administered.

I also guarantee you that if you were to cross reference the above data with age and co-morbidities, you'd find an extremely low level of severe infection among otherwise health and vaccinated and/or previously infected individuals.
I'm looking at the rates for 16-39 year olds which makes up the vast majority of the data for unvaccinated people:

Recovered: 0.179% of reinfection cases were severe

Vaccinated: 0.05% of breakthrough cases were severe

Yes the rates are low, but that's not my point. What I'm saying is that there's no reason (outside of different testing behaviors/access) that breakthrough infections would see severe cases at just over 1/4 the rate that reinfections do. You would expect them to be higher among the vaccinated group if anything, since the more vulnerable people (who are more prone to severe disease) are much more likely to be vaccinated.

Given that, the numbers imply that reinfections aren't being caught in that data at the same rate as breakthrough cases which would overstate the differences in effectiveness. Which makes sense, since the demographics that make up that group would tend to be lower income and have less interaction with the health system. At a similar severe-to-overall case ratio, you would have about 3x as many reinfections given their # of severe cases, which would triple their risk ratio.
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