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Old 12-06-2021, 03:28 PM   #5142
Ate 100 Treadmills
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Join Date: Mar 2006

Originally Posted by opendoor View Post
We're not stretching the process out by choice; we're doing it because we won't have a healthcare system if we just let it run wild through the unvaccinated.
Sort of. Immunity from a recovery is likely more durable, but it still wanes just like with every other coronavirus. Based on the study I linked above, the risk ratio triples from the 6 month point to the 12 month point after recovery.

And of course there are some inherent biases in reinfection data that might overstate its effectiveness and longevity. As I mentioned above, that Israel study showed reinfections having nearly 4x the rate of severe cases to total cases when compared to breakthrough infections. I can't think of any immunological reason for that, so it likely comes down to willingly unvaccinated people also having different test-seeking behaviors or poorer access to testing. If that's correct, then the actual number of infections in the recovered group would be much higher than it appears in the data, relative to the number of breakthrough infection.

And there is also survivorship bias in reinfection data. The people who might be most likely to be reinfected are likely also the ones who end up dying or becoming severely sick from it in the first place. Whereas an equally vulnerable person who is vaccinated might have a breakthrough infection and survive.
It triples, but still remains very low, at 30.2/100,000. Obviously, getting vaccination further adds to protection.

You're also looking at numbers and not rates of severe infection:

The resulting crude rates of severe disease for persons age 60 or older, ignoring the time from the last immunity-conferring event, were 0.6 per 100,000 person days for the Recovered cohort, 0.5 for the Recovered then Vaccinated cohorts, 1.1 for the Vaccinated then Recovered, 4.6 for the Vaccinated cohort, and only 0.4 for the Booster.
Rates of severe infection within the recovered are much less than the just vaccinated, unless booster shots are administered.

I also guarantee you that if you were to cross reference the above data with age and co-morbidities, you'd find an extremely low level of severe infection among otherwise health and vaccinated and/or previously infected individuals.
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