Quote:
Originally Posted by GGG
85% is nothing.
Compare the development in batteries to the development of the microchip. Increase in battery performance has been at a glacial pace.
And range is still severely limited at any reasonable cost and every vehicle needs to be heavily subsidized at the consumer end and the industrial end for it to be twice as expensive.
Yes it will get there. All of the current wave of articles are alarmist designed to fuel a talking point. I suspect you can pull articles from 10 years ago that match almost word for word of the current set of articles. The current predictions are not grounded in any real science. They are just predictions.
What are your specific predictions for world wide oil demand and electric car adoption?
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85% reduction in ten years is nothing? Ok...
There were no articles from 10 years ago about the impending take over of EVs. Try and go find any articles that were anything more than highly skeptical. Yet here we are.
I think the battery technology is mostly there. Ranges of 340 kilometers are being achieved for vehicles with a price of $45,000. In another ten years the price of those vehicles should drop to $25-30,000. At that point, by 2027 I think we'll see 25% of all new vehicles globally being electric. In OECD countries adoption rates will be higher than 50%.
From a technical perspective, I don't think batteries need to get much better. A 500 km range is more than enough to bust the internal combustion engine market open and 300 km at a 20% lower price is probably enough too.
Charging infrastructure is the limiting factor at this point not batteries. But that's being solved. In 10 years all highway gas stations will have chargers, it'll be a relatively small transition actually.
So world oil demand probably continues to grow to 2030 driven by aviation, trucking and plastics but the pace of growth falls by over half of the previous 15 year average. Oil demand for passenger vehicles peaks by 2025 globally.