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Originally Posted by accord1999
I agree which is why I believe that the NC line will never be built for this generation if Phase 1 goes ahead as proposed.
Some are optimistic about the city getting additional funding but given the nature of mega-projects, I would err on the side of pessimism. I would expect any funding would be swallowed up by costs overruns and where near the end, the city will be scrimping everywhere just to finish the SE line and there would be no more appetite from the Calgary taxpayer and higher level governments for another giant rail infrastructure project. And because the NC line essentially doesn't exist in any form, there wouldn't even be a sunk cost argument where you might as well spend the money to finish it.
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If Phase 1 goes ahead as recommended, what it does is makes for several (2, 3, or 4) nicely sized expansion projects to finish the line to North Pointe. They'd be a few hundred million apiece, take 2-3 years each, and each hit sweet spots geographically (McKnight, Beddington and North Pointe, for example) that add value/payoff.
At that scale, it is much easier to find and get inventive with funding. It's also easier to make the case politically, say in the next election cycle, for mayoral or councilor candidates. Also, after the line reaches Shepard in the southeast and 16th Avenue in the north, I think people will treat it like two separate lines and that extensions won't compete with each other as much and may happen concurrently, just like when the northwest and south ends of the red line were extended concurrently in the early 2000s. As a political exercise, it was important to marry the two sides of the Green Line together so that the central section could be done right and also wouldn't be the expensive hurdle associated with either side of the line, blocking either from getting done. It was also important to flesh out the concept of the north central line going up Centre Street instead of Nose Creek.
For the north central line, I think strong Ward 4 and Ward 3 councilors/candidates will make the difference as to when it gets fully built out. That it even got to this stage (building out the tunnel section to 16th Avenue) is a miracle and a big win given that most of the northern councilors are very weak on transit, and that Sean Chu is the worst councilor Calgary has seen in decades.
Not sure about that taxpayer appetite thing. Transit projects have had widespread support among Calgarians for decades. The NDP has been pretty wishy washy on the funding of this project (I think it's partly a timing thing, they want to fund it heading into 2019), but the federal Liberals have shown clear signals and willingness to increase the funding package to cities for transit infrastructure.