I am updating my earlier post, which was prompted by the "Eoric" musings of our very own Erick Estrada:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada
Better odds they miss the playoffs than win the division. I would be happy with a wildcard at this point as Vegas has two games at hand as well as a 10 point lead. Even if they win 3/4 against them (not likely an easy task) they have only gained 4 points and if they split there's likely zero chance they catch them unless they go on a lengthily losing skid. There are eight teams within 6 points of each other (including the Flames) so the standings are going to change on a weekly basis as by next week the Flames could easily be 12th in the conference.
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My last post showed that no, even in the worst case scenario the Flames could find themselves no lower than 11th after the mandated break. But with a big win today, things have changed — alot ...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
Here are the numbers of games for teams in 9–12 spots behind the Flames while they are idle next week:
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Anaheim: 3 games
San Jose: 3 games
Colorado: 2 games
Chicago: 0 games
The two wildcard teams play 0 games (Minnesota) and 3 games (Dallas) respectively. The LA Kings now suddenly find themselves behind the Flames in third spot in the division.
The LA Kings will play 3 games before the Flames return to action next Saturday.
The Wild, Ducks, and Avalanche all won their games yesterday. The Flames won their last game before the break today, and the Chicago Blackhawks lost theirs to slip behind Calgary. So, here are the Standings as of today, heading into the break:
Pac #2. Cgy 45GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
Pac #3. LA 43GP 53 Pts 22 ROW
WC #1. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
WC #2. Dal 44GP 51 Pts 21 ROW
#9. SJ 41GP 50 Pts 20 ROW
#10. Chi 45GP 50 Pts 22 ROW
#11. Col 42GP 49 Pts 22 ROW
#12. Anh 44GP 49 Pts 18 ROW
For this exercise I will assume that every team earns a regulation win, except for instances in which Anaheim plays Colorado and LA, LA plays SJ, and SJ plays Colorado. The losers in each of these games will earn a point. I will always pick Pacific teams to win, which means that Colorado will earn a maximum of two points this week. In games featuring the Kings, I will select them to win, as they are the Flames's currently closest competitors. They will gain six points, and each of Anaheim and SJ gain one point in their losses.
Pac #2. LA 46GP 59 Pts 25 ROW
Pac #3. SJ 44GP 55 Pts 22 ROW
WC #1. Dal 47GP 57 Pts 24 ROW
WC #2. Cgy 45GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
#9. Min 46GP 54 Pts 23 ROW
#10. Anh 47GP 54 Pts 20 ROW
#11. Col 44GP 51 Pts 22 ROW
#12. Chi 45GP 50 Pts 22 ROW
So, in the worst case scenario the Flames will find themselves drop no further than the second wildcard slot, one point out of the Division with SJ holding one game in hand, and five points back of the Division #2 slot with a game in hand on LA.
Bear in mind that this is the WORST CASE SCENARIO. In truth, not all of these teams will win all of the games I projected for this exercise. In truth, if this is the absolute worst that can happen between now and next weekend, then I would say the Flames are in excellent shape heading into the break. I would actually suggest that chances are very good they will still find themselves in a Division spot when they come out of it next week.